So the world is gonna need a lot of batteries if we want green energy to work properly. The challenge is how to do this without exploiting people or the planet even worse than the status quo of fossil fuels.
Basic requirements
Qualitative
We need battery tech that...
- doesn't require too many rare minerals
- doesn't require too much energy to produce and later recycle(...)( This implies an additional requirement: Recyclability )
- doesn't require too much labor
There doesn't need to be a "one size fits all" solution. Clearly different battery tech is good for different applications. But as a simple viability test, we need to imagine what would happen if the battery tech was scaled up to the amount of energy storage we'd need in a world without fossil fuels.
Quantitative
Scale used: Estimated energy storage that would be needed if all vehicles were electric. See whyIt's a compromise between a few considerations:
- On one hand, we're going to need more than just vehicle batteries if solar and wind are main power sources. We'd also need on-grid energy storage. Also, the same minerals might also be needed for other things besides energy storage.
- On the other hand, battery tech won't be one-size-fits-all: it's possible to have a mix of battery tech (each with different mineral profiles) that could together meet 100% of all potential demand (full green energy scenario), even when no individual battery tech (within the mix) could meet the 100% on its own (limited by mineral reserves). Also, there are ways to reduce the need for vehicle energy storage (public transit and walkability)..
ev.battery
65.2 kWh
Energy capacity of the average electric vehicle battery
commercial_factor
2
Without this, we'd be calculating for just personal vehicles. But we also need to factor in commercial vehicles such as buses and trucks. These vary widely in size, and data is hard to find, so for simplicity sake, we just assume that they'd add up to about the same as personal vehicles - thus doubling total energy storage needed. This assumption is based on the fact that freight trucks are a somewhat smaller share of
energy demand than passenger vehicles, but the trucks probably need a longer range.
world.cars * ev.battery * commercial_factor
terajoules
scale
(calculation loading)
Minerals
For each mineral, divide its global reserves by scale. This gives you a reasonable limit(...)( and if this limit seems too strict to be useful, then consider it to be a "soft limit" as it's based on mineral reserves. The "hard limit" would be based on mineral resources ), in grams per kWh of battery capacity:
chromium.reserves
570 million tonnes
Global mineral reserves of chromium metal
Chromium reserves worldwide by country 2021 - Statista
https://www.statista.com › statistics › reserves-of-...
chromium.reserves / scale
grams per kWh
(calculation loading)
cobalt.reserves
7.1 million tonnes
Cobalt metal: Total global mineral reserves
https://www.statista.com/statistics/264930/global-cobalt-reserves/
cobalt.reserves / scale
grams per kWh
(calculation loading)
copper.reserves
870 million tonnes
Global mineral reserves of copper metal
USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2021
copper.reserves / scale
grams per kWh
(calculation loading)
iron.reserves
84 billion tonnes
Global mineral reserves of iron metal
Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2021
iron.reserves / scale
grams per kWh
(calculation loading)
lead.reserves
90.4 million tonnes
Lead (metal): Global mineral reserves
https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/our-natural-resources/minerals-mining/minerals-metals-facts/lead-facts/20518
lead.reserves / scale
grams per kWh
(calculation loading)
lithium.reserves
18425000 tonnes
Lithium metal: Total global mineral reserves
https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/
Added up all the countries: 9,200,000 + 4,700,000 + 1,900,000 + 1,500,000 + 750,000 + 220,000 + 95,000 + 60,000 = 18,425,000 metric tons
lithium.reserves / scale
grams per kWh
(calculation loading)
nickel.reserves
94 million tons
Global reserves of nickel metal
Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2021
nickel.reserves / scale
grams per kWh
(calculation loading)
silver.reserves
500000 tonnes
Global mineral reserves of silver metal
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1114842/global-silver-reserves/
silver.reserves / scale
grams per kWh
(calculation loading)
zinc.reserves
210 million tonnes
Global reserves of zinc metal
USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2023
zinc.reserves / scale
grams per kWh
(calculation loading)
Note: This is not a full list of minerals.
If you're designing a battery, consider the limit for any minerals in the battery. It can be calculated the same way as the above examples.
Energy and labor
For simplicity sake(...)( and due to lack of data ), we just have to assume (for now) that any tech that stays within mineral limits(...)( as talked about above ) won't need an outrageous amount of energy or labor to produce. Manufacturing & recycling probably doesn't vary quite as much as mining does(...)( the energy & labor of mining depends heavily on which mineral is being mined / how scarce it is ).
Ultimately we do need to assess the EROI of energy storage.