How much electricity would it take: Difference between revisions

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==Quick estimate==
==Quick estimate==
===Per capita, developed countries===
{{dp
|<nowiki>car.fuel_economy</nowiki>
|<nowiki>25.4 miles per gallon gasoline</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Gas mileage of an average American new car</nowiki>
|<nowiki>This datapoint is conformable with [electric_car.efficiency], because the calculator understands 'gallon gasoline' as an energy unit.</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
Citation:</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
"The average fuel economy for new 2020 model year cars, light trucks and SUVs in the United States was 25.4 miles per US gallon (9.3 L/100 km)."</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
- Fuel economy in automobiles - Wikipedia</nowiki>
}}
{{dp
|<nowiki>ev.efficiency</nowiki>
|<nowiki>100 miles per 34.6 kWh</nowiki>
|<nowiki>The "gas mileage" equivalent for an average electric car.</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Average Electric Car kWh Per Mile [Results From 231 EVs]</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
ecocostsavings.com/average-electric-car-kwh-per-mile</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
Data originally from epa.gov/fueleconomy</nowiki>
}}
{{dp
|<nowiki>world.population</nowiki>
|<nowiki>8 billion</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Number of people alive today, globally</nowiki>
|<nowiki>https://www.unfpa.org/data/world-population-dashboard</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
Last updated in 2023</nowiki>
}}
{{dp
|<nowiki>oecd.population</nowiki>
|<nowiki>1372683615</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Number of people living in OECD countries</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Population, total - World Bank Data</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
data.worldbank.org › indicator › SP.POP.TOTL </nowiki><br /><nowiki>
</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
Using data from 2020</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
OECD countries are: Austria, Australia, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States.</nowiki>
}}
===World===
{{dp
|total.status_quo
|417.973 EJ/year
|World energy usage - total final consumption
|International Energy Agency (IEA) - Key World Energy Statistics 2021 - Page 47 - Using data from 2019
}}
{{dp
|transport.status_quo
|120.972 EJ/year
|World - energy used by all types of transportation
|International Energy Agency (IEA) - Key World Energy Statistics 2021 - Page 47 - Using data from 2019
}}
{{dp
|transport.if_electric
|transport.status_quo * car.fuel_economy / ev.efficiency
|World - how much energy might be used if all vehicles were electric
|Estimated based on an energy efficiency ratio: typical gasoline car vs typical electric car. Assuming that the ratio would be about the same for larger vehicles.<br />- Does not factor in the charge/discharge energy losses in the battery.<br />- Does not factor in the energy needed to manufacture EVs (which might be higher than manufacturing combustion vehicles).
}}
{{calc
|total.status_quo - transport.status_quo + transport.if_electric
|TWh / year
|...}}{{calc|...
|(watts per capita)(world.population)
}}
===Developed countries===
{{dp
|oecd.total.status_quo
|158.590 EJ/year
|Developed countries (OECD countries) - energy usage - total final consumption
|International Energy Agency (IEA) - Key World Energy Statistics 2021 - Page 49 - Using data from 2019
}}
{{dp
|oecd.transport.status_quo
|53.737 EJ/year
|Developed countries (OECD countries) - energy used by all types of transportation
|International Energy Agency (IEA) - Key World Energy Statistics 2021 - Page 49 - Using data from 2019
}}
{{dp
|oecd.transport.if_electric
|transport.status_quo * car.fuel_economy / ev.efficiency
|Developed countries (OECD countries) - how much energy might be used if all vehicles were electric
|Estimated based on an energy efficiency ratio: typical gasoline car vs typical electric car. Assuming that the ratio would be about the same for larger vehicles.<br />- Does not factor in the charge/discharge energy losses in the battery.<br />- Does not factor in the energy needed to manufacture EVs (which might be higher than manufacturing combustion vehicles).
}}
{{calc
|oecd.total.status_quo - oecd.transport.status_quo + oecd.transport.if_electric
|TWh / year
|...}}{{calc|...
|(watts per capita)(oecd.population)
}}
----
<tab name="Assumptions involved in this estimate" collapsed>
* The estimate is based on status-quo total final energy consumption <!--i.e. "Status quo, electrified" scenario name-->
* For the ''transportation'' sector, we factor in the increased energy-efficiency of [[electric vehicles]] (compared to gasoline & diesel).
* For everything else, we assume there's no significant increase in energy efficiency. Why:
** ''Industry'' sector: Most fossil fuel use is for producing heat in manufacturing. The efficiency would be the same for electricity as it would be for fuel.
** ''Buildings'' sector: Most fossil fuel use is for heating. While it's true that electric heat pumps ''could'' be more efficient, the majority of heating is in locations/seasons too cold for any efficiency gain for heat pumps.
----
The "quick estimate" could be an ''over''estimate if...
* increased heat pump usage, cold weather heat pump breakthrough
The "quick estimate" could be an ''under''estimate if...
* energy storage losses become significant
----
'''FAQ:''' "Why base the estimate off of the status quo?"
 
This wiki advocates for [[reduce energy demand|decreased energy consumption]] in rich ("developed") countries. But also, poorer countries might need to ''increase'' their energy use. So for lack of more detailed data, the status-quo based "quick estimate" provides a "middle of the road" sense of scale for the amount of renewables that might be needed to reach [[net zero]] carbon emissions.
</tab>
 
==See also==
=====More detailed analyses=====
{{empty}}
{{empty}}
<!-- TODO: Start with status quo, then add EVs and electrifying all industries etc -->

Revision as of 06:51, 5 June 2024

How much electricity would it take to replace all fossil fuel energy?

Quick estimate

car.fuel_economy
25.4 miles per gallon gasoline
Gas mileage of an average American new car
This datapoint is conformable with [electric_car.efficiency], because the calculator understands 'gallon gasoline' as an energy unit.

Citation:
"The average fuel economy for new 2020 model year cars, light trucks and SUVs in the United States was 25.4 miles per US gallon (9.3 L/100 km)."
- Fuel economy in automobiles - Wikipedia
ev.efficiency
100 miles per 34.6 kWh
The "gas mileage" equivalent for an average electric car.
Average Electric Car kWh Per Mile [Results From 231 EVs]
ecocostsavings.com/average-electric-car-kwh-per-mile
Data originally from epa.gov/fueleconomy
world.population
8 billion
Number of people alive today, globally
https://www.unfpa.org/data/world-population-dashboard
Last updated in 2023
oecd.population
1372683615
Number of people living in OECD countries
Population, total - World Bank Data
data.worldbank.org › indicator › SP.POP.TOTL

Using data from 2020

OECD countries are: Austria, Australia, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States.

World

total.status_quo
417.973 EJ/year
World energy usage - total final consumption
International Energy Agency (IEA) - Key World Energy Statistics 2021 - Page 47 - Using data from 2019
transport.status_quo
120.972 EJ/year
World - energy used by all types of transportation
International Energy Agency (IEA) - Key World Energy Statistics 2021 - Page 47 - Using data from 2019
transport.if_electric
transport.status_quo * car.fuel_economy / ev.efficiency
World - how much energy might be used if all vehicles were electric
Estimated based on an energy efficiency ratio: typical gasoline car vs typical electric car. Assuming that the ratio would be about the same for larger vehicles.
- Does not factor in the charge/discharge energy losses in the battery.
- Does not factor in the energy needed to manufacture EVs (which might be higher than manufacturing combustion vehicles).

total.status_quo - transport.status_quo + transport.if_electric TWh / year ...(calculation loading) ... (watts per capita)(world.population) (calculation loading)

Developed countries

oecd.total.status_quo
158.590 EJ/year
Developed countries (OECD countries) - energy usage - total final consumption
International Energy Agency (IEA) - Key World Energy Statistics 2021 - Page 49 - Using data from 2019
oecd.transport.status_quo
53.737 EJ/year
Developed countries (OECD countries) - energy used by all types of transportation
International Energy Agency (IEA) - Key World Energy Statistics 2021 - Page 49 - Using data from 2019
oecd.transport.if_electric
transport.status_quo * car.fuel_economy / ev.efficiency
Developed countries (OECD countries) - how much energy might be used if all vehicles were electric
Estimated based on an energy efficiency ratio: typical gasoline car vs typical electric car. Assuming that the ratio would be about the same for larger vehicles.
- Does not factor in the charge/discharge energy losses in the battery.
- Does not factor in the energy needed to manufacture EVs (which might be higher than manufacturing combustion vehicles).

oecd.total.status_quo - oecd.transport.status_quo + oecd.transport.if_electric TWh / year ...(calculation loading) ... (watts per capita)(oecd.population) (calculation loading)

  • The estimate is based on status-quo total final energy consumption
  • For the transportation sector, we factor in the increased energy-efficiency of electric vehicles (compared to gasoline & diesel).
  • For everything else, we assume there's no significant increase in energy efficiency. Why:
    • Industry sector: Most fossil fuel use is for producing heat in manufacturing. The efficiency would be the same for electricity as it would be for fuel.
    • Buildings sector: Most fossil fuel use is for heating. While it's true that electric heat pumps could be more efficient, the majority of heating is in locations/seasons too cold for any efficiency gain for heat pumps.

The "quick estimate" could be an overestimate if...

  • increased heat pump usage, cold weather heat pump breakthrough

The "quick estimate" could be an underestimate if...

  • energy storage losses become significant

FAQ: "Why base the estimate off of the status quo?"

This wiki advocates for decreased energy consumption in rich ("developed") countries. But also, poorer countries might need to increase their energy use. So for lack of more detailed data, the status-quo based "quick estimate" provides a "middle of the road" sense of scale for the amount of renewables that might be needed to reach net zero carbon emissions.

See also

More detailed analyses

This section has not been filled in yet.

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