View source for Calc:If all vehicles were electric

Suppose we keep the status quo of transportation,<!--[[car culture]]--> but make all vehicles electric. This raises some basic questions:
* How much electricity would we need to power all the vehicles?
* How much energy would it take to manufacture vehicles - both in the short term and long term?
* Which critical minerals would we need, and how much of each?
* Could the minerals be recycled from vehicles at their end-of-life?

==Powering the vehicles==
Electric cars are more energy-efficient than gas cars, but use a different ''type'' of energy, so this might seem like "comparing apples to oranges". But still we can use this knowledge to help make an estimate. Let's start by establishing a simple ratio:

{{dp
|<nowiki>electric_car.efficiency</nowiki>
|<nowiki>100 miles per 34.6 kWh</nowiki>
|<nowiki>The "gas mileage" equivalent for an average electric car.</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Average Electric Car kWh Per Mile [Results From 231 EVs]</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
ecocostsavings.com › average-electric-car-kwh-per-mile </nowiki>
}}
{{dp
|<nowiki>car.fuel_economy</nowiki>
|<nowiki>25.4 miles per gallon gasoline</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Gas mileage of an average American new car</nowiki>
|<nowiki>This datapoint is conformable with [electric_car.efficiency], because the calculator understands 'gallon gasoline' as an energy unit.</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
Citation:</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
"The average fuel economy for new 2020 model year cars, light trucks and SUVs in the United States was 25.4 miles per US gallon (9.3 L/100 km)."</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
- Fuel economy in automobiles - Wikipedia</nowiki>
}}
{{calc
|electric_car.efficiency / car.fuel_economy
|
|ratio
}}

This tells us that the average electric car has about 4 times the "energy mileage" of the average gas car. But that's without considering the losses in charging and discharging the battery.


Suppose the electric vehicle uses lithium-ion batteries:
{{dp
|<nowiki>li_ion.charge_discharge_efficiency</nowiki>
|<nowiki>85%</nowiki>
|<nowiki>When you charge a lithium-ion battery, this much of the energy can be recovered. The rest is lost as heat.</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Range: 80 to 90 %</nowiki><br />
}}
{{calc
|ratio * li_ion.charge_discharge_efficiency
|
|ratio_for_li_ion_vehicles
}}


Or suppose the electric vehicle uses hydrogen fuel cells:
{{dp
|<nowiki>electrolysis.efficiency</nowiki>
|<nowiki>80%</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Energy efficiency of producing hydrogen & oxygen gases from water</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Hydrogen made by the electrolysis of water is now cost-competitive ...</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
www.carboncommentary.com › blog › hydrogen-made-by-the-electrolysis... </nowiki>
}}
{{dp
|<nowiki>hydrogen_fuel_cell.efficiency</nowiki>
|<nowiki>50%</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Electric energy efficiency of an average hydrogen fuel cell</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Hydrogen Fuel Cells Fact Sheet</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
www.californiahydrogen.org › uploads › files › doe_fuelcell_factsheet</nowiki>
}}
{{calc
|ratio * hydrogen_fuel_cell.efficiency * electrolysis.efficiency
|
|ratio_for_fuel_cell_vehicles
}}
In this second case, we need electricity to [[electrolysis|make hydrogen gas]], which is later used in the fuel cell to power the car. Hence we consider the losses involved in both processes.


For comparison, consider a car with an ''internal combustion engine'' that runs on hydrogen gas instead of gasoline: If the engine's efficiency is similar to a gas car, we end up with something with ''less'' overall efficiency than a gas car, because we still have to deal with all the energy losses from making the hydrogen gas in the first place:
{{calc
|electrolysis.efficiency
|
|ratio_for_hydrogen_combustion_vehicles
}}
This ratio would be less bad if hydrogen combustion engines are more efficient than gasoline combustion engines. More research is needed - you can join the {{talk}}.


So far we've looked at ''cars'' - but what about buses, trucks, planes, ships, etc? So far, there isn't a lot of data available. For these next estimates, we just have to assume that the ratios are ''similar enough''.

We ''do'' have data on how much energy the world currently uses for ''transportation'' {{x|which we could also break into subcategories, but we won't right now, for simplicity sake}}. So if we apply the ratios from above:
{{dp
|<nowiki>transport.energy</nowiki>
|<nowiki>2890.90 Mtoe/year</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Transporation's energy usage - worldwide total</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Includes passenger and freight/cargo.</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
"Key World Energy Statistics 2020" IEA</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
Page 47 - Simplified energy balance table - World energy balance, 2018</nowiki>
}}
{{calc
|transport.energy / ratio_for_li_ion_vehicles
|terawatts
}}
{{calc
|transport.energy / ratio_for_fuel_cell_vehicles
|terawatts
}}
{{calc
|transport.energy / ratio_for_hydrogen_combustion_vehicles
|terawatts
}}
<small>These wattages are ''power averaged over time''. Peak power could be higher, but hopefully we'd find ways to smooth that out.</small>

And there you have it, a {{p2|simple|There are probably a lot of more precise estimates to be made at some point.}} estimate of how much electricity we would need if all vehicles ran without fossil fuels.


But we're not done, because we also need energy to ''manufacture'' the vehicles...

==Manufacturing the vehicles==
Producing batteries is energy-intensive. That's one reason why electric vehicles are more expensive.

Quick estimate based on data on lithium-ion batteries:
{{dp
|<nowiki>li_ion.rq_energy</nowiki>
|<nowiki>57 kWh per kWh</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Energy required to manufacture a lithium-ion battery</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Factory energy only. DOES NOT include the energy involved in mining the materials.</nowiki><br /><br /><nowiki>
"Based on public data on two different Li-ion battery manufacturing facilities, and adjusted results from a previous study, the most reasonable assumptions for the energy usage for manufacturing Li-ion battery cells appears to be 50–65 kWh of electricity per kWh of battery capacity."</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
Source:</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
Energy use for GWh-scale lithium-ion battery production</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
Institute of Physics - IOP Publishing</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2515-7620/ab5e1e</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
</nowiki>
}}
{{dp
|<nowiki>ev.lifespan</nowiki>
|<nowiki>8 years</nowiki>
|<nowiki></nowiki>
|<nowiki></nowiki>
}}
{{calc
|li_ion.rq_energy * ev.battery * world.cars * commercial_factor / ev.lifespan
|terawatts
}}
For lack of better data, let's assume that this makes roughly the ''difference'' between manufacturing electric vehicles vs fossil fuel vehicles. This number would be added to the ''industrial'' section of [[energy demand]].

However, this estimate currently doesn't include the energy involved in ''extracting'' the minerals to make the battery - only the energy in manufacturing the battery. Mineral-related energy is probably quite high in the case of [[lithium-ion batteries]], especially for the cobalt.{{qn}} It would likely be much lower for [[sodium-ion batteries]] made from more abundant minerals.{{qn}}

This page doesn't currently have data on energy to manufacture [[fuel cell vehicles]], yet.{{rn}}

==Minerals==
First we have to estimate how much [[energy storage]] would be needed. Here's a very quick-and-dirty estimate:
{{dp
|ev.battery
|65.2 kWh
|Energy capacity of the average electric vehicle battery
|<cite>Useable battery capacity of full electric vehicles</cite><br />https://ev-database.org/cheatsheet/useable-battery-capacity-electric-car
}}
{{dp
|world.cars
|1.446 billion
|
|<cite>How Many Cars Are There In The World in 2022?</cite><br />https://hedgescompany.com/blog/2021/06/how-many-cars-are-there-in-the-world/
}}
{{dp
|commercial_factor
|2
|
|Without this, we'd be calculating for just personal vehicles. But we also need to factor in commercial vehicles such as buses and trucks. These vary widely in size, and data is hard to find, so for simplicity sake, we just assume that they'd add up to about the same as personal vehicles - thus doubling total energy storage needed. This assumption is based on the fact that freight trucks are a somewhat smaller share of [[energy demand scenarios|energy demand]] than passenger vehicles, but the trucks probably need a longer range.
}}
{{calc
|world.cars * ev.battery * commercial_factor
|terajoules
|vehicle_energy_storage_needed
}}

===Lithium-ion batteries===

[[Lithium-ion batteries]] are the current standard for electric cars and most small gadgets (phones, laptops, etc).

Is there enough lithium in the Earth?
{{dp
|<nowiki>li_ion.cell_voltage</nowiki>
|<nowiki>3.6 volts</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Voltage of a single lithium-ion cell.</nowiki>
|<nowiki>https://www.cei.washington.edu/education/science-of-solar/battery-technology/</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
https://www.fluxpower.com/blog/what-is-the-energy-density-of-a-lithium-ion-battery</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
It's 3.6 volts for the "cobalt type" of lithium-ion battery. Other types might have a very slightly different voltage.</nowiki>
}}
{{dp
|<nowiki>li_ion.lithium_by_energy</nowiki>
|<nowiki>0.3 grams per amp hour li_ion.cell_voltage</nowiki>
|<nowiki>To store a given amount of energy in lithium-ion batteries, this is how much lithium would be needed.</nowiki>
|<nowiki>https://batteryguy.com/kb/knowledge-base/how-to-calculate-the-lithium-content-in-a-battery/</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
The article says lithium per amp hour. We convert this to lithium per watt hour (energy), by including the cell voltage.</nowiki>
}}
{{dp
|<nowiki>lithium.reserves</nowiki>
|<nowiki>18425000 tonnes</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Lithium metal: Total global mineral reserves</nowiki>
|<nowiki>https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
Added up all the countries: 9,200,000 + 4,700,000 + 1,900,000 + 1,500,000 + 750,000 + 220,000 + 95,000 + 60,000 = 18,425,000 metric tons</nowiki>
}}
{{dp
|<nowiki>li_ion.cobalt_by_energy</nowiki>
|<nowiki>20 kg per 100 kilowatt hours</nowiki>
|<nowiki>To store a given amount of energy, in lithium-ion batteries (cobalt type), this is how much cobalt would be needed.</nowiki>
|<nowiki>https://www.energy.gov/eere/vehicles/articles/reducing-reliance-cobalt-lithium-ion-batteries</nowiki>
}}
{{dp
|<nowiki>cobalt.reserves</nowiki>
|<nowiki>7.1 million tonnes</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Cobalt metal: Total global mineral reserves</nowiki>
|<nowiki>https://www.statista.com/statistics/264930/global-cobalt-reserves/</nowiki>
}}
{{calc
|vehicle_energy_storage_needed * li_ion.lithium_by_energy
|% lithium.reserves
}}

Just barely. How about cobalt?
{{calc
|vehicle_energy_storage_needed * li_ion.cobalt_by_energy
|% cobalt.reserves
}}

Not viable.

===Hydrogen fuel cells===
Fuel cells need ''platinum-group metals'' (PGMs). Mineral reserves are sufficient but ''production'' is too low. Calculations are found here: [[Fuel cell vehicles#Rare minerals in the fuel cell]]

==Recycling==

Minerals are scarce enough that [[recycling]] is absolutely crucial. ''You can help expand this section by joining the {{talk}}.''

==Conclusion==
Electric vehicles, ''in their current form'', are probably '''not''' a viable way to help stop [[climate change]]. Here are some ''other'' options worth exploring:
* Using some other type of battery, which doesn't depend so much on cobalt.
** Perhaps [[lithium-sulfur]] batteries?
** Or even [[sodium-sulfur]] batteries?
*** This wiki doesn't yet have enough information to say how viable these battery types currently are.
* Electric vehicles with '''much smaller''' battery capacity, for city driving only.
** This would be a challenge for marketers & entrepreneurs.
* [[Public transit]], especially [[trains]].
* Making neighborhoods [[walkability|walkable]].