How much energy storage would it take
How much energy storage would be needed, per capita, to sustain status-quo "developed country"-type material conditions without fossil fuels?
Vehicles
Battery EVs
https://ev-database.org/cheatsheet/useable-battery-capacity-electric-car
https://www.api.org/news-policy-and-issues/blog/2022/05/26/top-numbers-driving-americas-gasoline-demand
www.worldometers.info › world-population › us-population
Last updated April 7 2022
Simple estimate: 54 kWh
Estimated from US vehicle ownership statistics (calculation loading) TODO: add commercial vehicles (semi trucks, at least)
Stationary storage
The need for energy storage depends on which mix of energy sources is used. Here are some scenarios.
Note: Some of the "short-term energy storage" here may overlap with vehicle batteries, if people use their EVs as grid storage.
The article provides a range of values: 100 to 265 Wh/kg
We take the geometric average: 163 Wh/kg
https://www.fluxpower.com/blog/what-is-the-energy-density-of-a-lithium-ion-battery
The article also provides a range: 50 to 260 Wh/kg
I assume that article is a bit older since the range is lower.
Oct 2, 2019
Run on Less with Hydrogen Fuel Cells - RMI
rmi.org › Blog
All solar
Quick estimate
- 74 kWh short-term storage - equivalent to 455 kg of lithium-ion batteries
- 6773 kWh long-term storage - equivalent to 203 kg of hydrogen gas (but its container might be much heavier - several tons perhaps)
Solar tends to follow a day/night cycle, but sometimes there are cloudy days where the output is less. Therefore, assume that storing 24 hours of average energy demand is just about enough: (calculation loading) (calculation loading)
In the winter, average solar output tends to be about half what it is in the summer. Of course this depends on what part of the world we're dealing with, but for the sake of a quick estimate, we're just looking at a general case. So assume that storing 6 months worth of half the average energy demand would be enough: (calculation loading) (calculation loading)
The idea would be to produce hydrogen gas (or ammonia or some other fuel) in the summer using excess electricity, then burn it in the winter or whenever it is needed. This should be reasonable considering that energy_demand includes some things that don't necessarily have to be electric (i.e. heating; cooking; industrial uses of heat; hydrogen or ammonia combustion vehicles).
Estimates from real data
This section has not been filled in yet.
Mix of wind and solar
Estimates from real data
This section has not been filled in yet.
All nuclear
If nuclear plants are properly designed to adjust to the fluctuating electricity demand, then No energy storage would be needed, except in electric vehicles.
Other / more detailed analyses
If you'd like to do a similar analysis to the one on this page, you can add your link to it here.