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Energy demand scenarios (view source)

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[[File:energy-demand-status-quo.png]]
[[File:energy-demand-status-quo.png]]


[[File:energy-demand-developed.png]]
[[File:energy-demand-if-developed.png]]


==Methodologies==
==Methodology - general==
First we define the scale (X axis) (same for every bar graph):
First we define the scale (X axis) (same for every bar graph):
: 1 pixel = 24 Mtoe/year
: 1 pixel ≡ 32 Mtoe/year


{{dp
{{dp
|px
|px
|24 Mtoe/year
|32 Mtoe/year
|The X axis scale for the bar graphs
|1 pixel on the X axis scale of the bar graphs
|1 pixel = 24 Mtoe/year
|
}}
}}


===Status quo===
The next sections are the methodologies for each bar graph.
 
==Status quo==


Using data from IEA (international energy agency):
Using data from IEA (international energy agency):
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Source (1) has general stats about worldwide total final energy consumption (TFC), and what share of that is used in industry and transport.<br />
Source (1) has general stats about worldwide total final energy consumption (TFC), and what share of that is used in industry and transport.<br />
Source (2) has more detailed breakdowns for energy usage types, but they are only based on a handful of countries - mostly developed countries {{x|Australia, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, New Zealand, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States.}}.<br />
Source (2) has more detailed breakdowns for energy usage types, but they are only based on a handful of countries - mostly developed countries {{x|Australia, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, New Zealand, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States.}}.
 
We use these together, to estimate how energy is used globally.
We use these together, to estimate how energy is used globally.
 
{{dp
Industrial: global data from (1)<br />
|energy.tfc
Transport: take subcategories from (2), scale them to match the global demand in (1)<br />
|9937.70 Mtoe/year
Residential & Commercial: take subcategories from (2), scale them to match the remainder of global demand in (1)<br />
|Global energy usage - total final consumption (TFC)
Non-energy use of fuels: global data from (1)<br />
|Includes: fuel (80.7%) + electricity (19.3%) AFTER it is generated.<br />
 
Does not include the fuel used in generating electricity.<br />
Source: (1)
}}
{{dp
|oecd.energy.tfc
|9937.70 Mtoe/year
|Global energy usage - total final consumption (TFC)
|Includes: fuel (80.7%) + electricity (19.3%) AFTER it is generated.<br />
Does not include the fuel used in generating electricity.<br />
Source: (1)
}}
{{dp
{{dp
|non_energy_use
|non_energy_use
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|buildings.energy
|buildings.energy
|3290.73 Mtoe/year
|3290.73 Mtoe/year
|Energy usage in all homes + other buildings (worldwide total)
|Energy used in all buildings including houses - worldwide total
|Source: (1) - second row from the bottom ("Other") - rightmost column ("Total")
|Source: (1) - second row from the bottom ("Other") - rightmost column ("Total")
}}
}}
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<br />Note that this is wildly different from ''industry.energy'' which is global. That's because a lot of manufacturing happens in poorer countries.
<br />Note that this is wildly different from ''industry.energy'' which is global. That's because a lot of manufacturing happens in poorer countries.
}}
}}


'''Residential heating'''
'''Residential heating'''
{{calc
{{calc
|heating_air_residential.stfc / (residential.stfc+services.stfc) * buildings.energy
|heating_air_residential.stfc / (residential.stfc+services.stfc) * buildings.energy
|px
|px |rh
}}
 
'''Residential hot water'''
{{calc
|heating_water_residential.stfc / (residential.stfc+services.stfc) * buildings.energy
|px |rw
}}
}}


'''Residential other'''
'''Residential cooling'''
{{calc
{{calc
|(residential.stfc-heating_air_residential.stfc) / (residential.stfc+services.stfc) * buildings.energy
|cooling_air_residential.stfc / (residential.stfc+services.stfc) * buildings.energy
|px
|px |rc
}}
}}


'''Commercial & public'''
'''Residential other''' {{x|includes cooking, appliances, lighting, computers etc.}}
{{calc
|residential.stfc / (residential.stfc+services.stfc) * buildings.energy - rh - rw - rc
|px |ro
}}
 
 
'''Commercial & public spaces''' {{x|No data available on how much is heating vs nonheating.}}
{{calc
{{calc
|services.stfc / (residential.stfc+services.stfc) * buildings.energy
|services.stfc / (residential.stfc+services.stfc) * buildings.energy
|px
|px |cp
}}
}}


'''Road vehicles (passenger)'''
'''Road vehicles (passenger)'''
{{calc
{{calc
|passenger_road_transport.stfc / transport.stfc * transport.energy
|passenger_road_transport.stfc / transport.stfc * transport.energy
|px
|px |pr
}}
}}


'''Road vehicles (freight trucks)'''
'''Road vehicles (freight trucks)'''
{{calc
{{calc
|freight_road_transport.stfc / transport.stfc * transport.energy
|freight_road_transport.stfc / transport.stfc * transport.energy
|px
|px |fr
}}
}}


'''Ships, trains, planes'''
'''Ships, trains, planes'''
{{calc
{{calc
|(air_and_water_transport.stfc+rail_transport.stfc) / transport.stfc * transport.energy
|(air_and_water_transport.stfc+rail_transport.stfc) / transport.stfc * transport.energy
|px
|px |aw
}}
}}


'''Industrial'''
'''Industrial'''
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}}
}}


'''Non-energy use of fuels'''
 
'''Non-energy use of fuels''' {{x|Included in order to match the ''energy supply'' bar chart on the main [[energy]] page.}}
{{calc
{{calc
|non_energy_use
|non_energy_use
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'''Total final consumption'''
{{calc
|rh + rw + rc + ro + cp + pr + fr + aw + industry.energy + non_energy_use
|Mtoe/year
}}
==If every country was as "developed" as western nations==
Take the numbers from the status quo, and scale up ''some'' of them.
Use the ratio of energy-per-capita, in developed countries vs world average.
{{dp
|<nowiki>oecd.energy.tfc</nowiki>
|<nowiki>3784.37 Mtoe/year</nowiki>
|<nowiki>OECD countries - energy usage - total final consumption</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Key World Energy Statistics 2020 (IEA report)</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
- Page 49: OECD energy balance, 2018</nowiki>
}}
{{dp
|<nowiki>oecd.population</nowiki>
|<nowiki>1291087000</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Number of people living in OECD countries</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Source: [PDF] Population and Migration - OECD</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
Using data from 2020</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
OECD countries are: Austria, Australia, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States.</nowiki>
}}
{{dp
|<nowiki>world.population</nowiki>
|<nowiki>7.875 billion</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Number of people alive today, globally</nowiki>
|<nowiki>https://www.unfpa.org/data/world-population-dashboard</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
Last updated in 2021</nowiki>
}}
{{calc
|oecd.energy.tfc / oecd.population * world.population / energy.tfc
|
|scale_up
}}
'''Residential heating''' - not scaled, because most developing countries are in warm climates.
{{calc
|rh
|px
}}
'''Residential more''' - scaled
{{calc
|rw * scale_up
|px
}}
{{calc
|rc * scale_up
|px
}}
{{calc
|ro * scale_up
|px
}}
'''Commercial & public spaces'''<br />
We have to scale just the ''non-heating'' component, but we don't have exact data on it. Best estimate: assume that the status quo is 50/50 heating & nonheating (similar to residential). So we scale up half of it.
{{calc
|50% cp + 50% cp*scale_up
|px
}}
'''Transport''' - scaled
{{calc
|pr * scale_up
|px
}}
{{calc
|fr * scale_up
|px
}}
{{calc
|aw * scale_up
|px
}}
'''Industrial''' - scaled {{x|because even though some developing countries have a lot of industry already, much of it goes to making goods that get exported to developed countries. So to make that kind of material wealth for the whole world, industries have to be even bigger.}}
{{calc
|industry.energy * scale_up
|px
}}
'''Non-energy use of fuels''' - scaled
{{calc
|non_energy_use * scale_up
|px
}}
'''Total final consumption'''
{{calc
|rh + rw*scale_up + rc*scale_up + ro*scale_up + 50% cp + 50% cp*scale_up + pr*scale_up + fr*scale_up + aw*scale_up + industry.energy*scale_up + non_energy_use*scale_up
|Mtoe/year
}}


===If every country was as "developed" as western nations===
This will be filled in soon.


===Minimum===
==Minimum==
This bar graph has not been made yet. It will be based on the [[minimal consumption scenario]].
This bar graph has not been made yet. It will be based on the [[minimal consumption scenario]].
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