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Energy demand scenarios (view source)

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[[File:energy-demand-status-quo.png]]
[[File:energy-demand-status-quo.png]]


[[File:energy-demand-developed.png]]
[[File:energy-demand-if-developed.png]]


==Methodologies==
==Methodology - general==
First we define the scale (X axis) (same for every bar graph):
First we define the scale (X axis) (same for every bar graph):
: 1 pixel ≡ 24 Mtoe/year
: 1 pixel ≡ 32 Mtoe/year


{{dp
{{dp
|px
|px
|24 Mtoe/year
|32 Mtoe/year
|The X axis scale for the bar graphs
|1 pixel on the X axis scale of the bar graphs
|1 pixel ≡ 24 Mtoe/year
|
}}
}}


===Status quo===
The next sections are the methodologies for each bar graph.
 
==Status quo==


Using data from IEA (international energy agency):
Using data from IEA (international energy agency):
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Source (1) has general stats about worldwide total final energy consumption (TFC), and what share of that is used in industry and transport.<br />
Source (1) has general stats about worldwide total final energy consumption (TFC), and what share of that is used in industry and transport.<br />
Source (2) has more detailed breakdowns for energy usage types, but they are only based on a handful of countries - mostly developed countries {{x|Australia, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, New Zealand, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States.}}.<br />
Source (2) has more detailed breakdowns for energy usage types, but they are only based on a handful of countries - mostly developed countries {{x|Australia, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, New Zealand, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States.}}.
 
We use these together, to estimate how energy is used globally.
We use these together, to estimate how energy is used globally.
{{dp
{{dp
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'''Residential heating''' {{x|Does not include water heating.}}
'''Residential heating'''
{{calc
{{calc
|heating_air_residential.stfc / (residential.stfc+services.stfc) * buildings.energy
|heating_air_residential.stfc / (residential.stfc+services.stfc) * buildings.energy
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}}
}}


'''Residential hot water'''
{{calc
|heating_water_residential.stfc / (residential.stfc+services.stfc) * buildings.energy
|px |rw
}}
'''Residential cooling'''
{{calc
|cooling_air_residential.stfc / (residential.stfc+services.stfc) * buildings.energy
|px |rc
}}


'''Residential other''' {{x|Includes cooling, water heating, lighting, appliances, computers etc.}}
'''Residential other''' {{x|includes cooking, appliances, lighting, computers etc.}}
{{calc
{{calc
|(residential.stfc-heating_air_residential.stfc) / (residential.stfc+services.stfc) * buildings.energy
|residential.stfc / (residential.stfc+services.stfc) * buildings.energy - rh - rw - rc
|px |ro
|px |ro
}}
}}




'''Commercial & public''' {{x|No data available on how much is heating vs nonheating.}}
'''Commercial & public spaces''' {{x|No data available on how much is heating vs nonheating.}}
{{calc
{{calc
|services.stfc / (residential.stfc+services.stfc) * buildings.energy
|services.stfc / (residential.stfc+services.stfc) * buildings.energy
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{{calc
{{calc
|passenger_road_transport.stfc / transport.stfc * transport.energy
|passenger_road_transport.stfc / transport.stfc * transport.energy
|px |rp
|px |pr
}}
}}


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{{calc
{{calc
|freight_road_transport.stfc / transport.stfc * transport.energy
|freight_road_transport.stfc / transport.stfc * transport.energy
|px |rf
|px |fr
}}
}}


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'''Total final consumption'''
{{calc
|rh + rw + rc + ro + cp + pr + fr + aw + industry.energy + non_energy_use
|Mtoe/year
}}


===If every country was as "developed" as western nations===
==If every country was as "developed" as western nations==
Take the numbers from the status quo, and scale up ''some'' of them.
Take the numbers from the status quo, and scale up ''some'' of them.


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'''Residential other''' - scaled
'''Residential more''' - scaled
{{calc
|rw * scale_up
|px
}}
{{calc
|rc * scale_up
|px
}}
{{calc
{{calc
|ro * scale_up
|ro * scale_up
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'''Commercial & public'''<br />
'''Commercial & public spaces'''<br />
We have to scale just the ''non-heating'' component, but we don't have exact data on it. Best estimate: assume that the status quo is 50/50 heating & nonheating (similar to residential). So we scale up half of it.
We have to scale just the ''non-heating'' component, but we don't have exact data on it. Best estimate: assume that the status quo is 50/50 heating & nonheating (similar to residential). So we scale up half of it.
{{calc
{{calc
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|px
|px
}}
}}


'''Transport''' - scaled
'''Transport''' - scaled
{{calc
{{calc
|rf * scale_up
|pr * scale_up
|px
|px
}}
}}
{{calc
{{calc
|rp * scale_up
|fr * scale_up
|px
|px
}}
}}
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|px
|px
}}
}}


'''Industrial''' - scaled {{x|because even though some developing countries have a lot of industry already, much of it goes to making goods that get exported to developed countries. So to make that kind of material wealth for the whole world, industries have to be even bigger.}}
'''Industrial''' - scaled {{x|because even though some developing countries have a lot of industry already, much of it goes to making goods that get exported to developed countries. So to make that kind of material wealth for the whole world, industries have to be even bigger.}}
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|px
|px
}}
}}


'''Non-energy use of fuels''' - scaled
'''Non-energy use of fuels''' - scaled
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}}
}}


===Minimum===
 
'''Total final consumption'''
{{calc
|rh + rw*scale_up + rc*scale_up + ro*scale_up + 50% cp + 50% cp*scale_up + pr*scale_up + fr*scale_up + aw*scale_up + industry.energy*scale_up + non_energy_use*scale_up
|Mtoe/year
}}
 
 
==Minimum==
This bar graph has not been made yet. It will be based on the [[minimal consumption scenario]].
This bar graph has not been made yet. It will be based on the [[minimal consumption scenario]].
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