Seeing the evidence but missing the model
Seeing the evidence but missing the model is a logical fallacy. It's one way that journalists & governments misrepresent scientific studies (whether intentionally or not).
Examples
Evidence seen:
Model missed:
- Even if we burned all the food in the world, we would still barely meet 10% of global energy demand (and we would starve).
Evidence seen:
- Most people who don't eat fish (or fish oils) often lack omega-3. Therefore, fish is an essential food.
Model missed:
- Fish get their omega-3 from algae. People can be just as healthy (or even healthier) if they eat algae (such as seaweed) instead of fish.
(...)( Algae production is also cheaper and involves less animal cruelty per unit. )
Evidence seen:
- People who eat a lot of saturated fats tend to be unhealthy. Therefore saturated fats are bad for you.
- People who eat a lot of sugar tend to be unhealthy. Therefore sugar is bad for you.
Model missed:
- If you eat mostly junk food, you'll get plenty of saturated fat and sugar, but not enough vitamins, minerals, protein and fiber. That's where the health problems come from. But junk food could very well be part of a healthy balanced diet - it could even provide most of the calories - as long as you also eat a lot of nutrient-rich foods (such as lentils, beans, carrots) and take a multivitamin.
Evidence seen:
- This one household appliance is energy-efficient. Therefore it can help the environment.
Model missed:
- You forgot to count all the energy it took to manufacture the appliance.
Evidence seen:
- If you get really good grades in school, you can grow up to be an architect instead of a construction worker. Therefore let's help more kids get good grades so they can really succeed in life!
Model missed:
- For every architect, there has to be hundreds of construction workers to actually build the designs. Therefore, if we want the world to have more job satisfaction, it doesn't help to push kids to get better grades. Instead, we have to make ordinary jobs more satisfying.
Evidence seen:
- You can make a money from the stock market. Therefore schools should teach kids how to invest in it when they're older.
Model missed:
- For every winner in the stock market, there is a loser (zero-sum game). If you made a good decision by selling your stock at a particular time, then by definition, the person buying it made a bad decision. The world would not be any wealthier if everyone knew how to invest in the stock market.
Subtypes
- confusing correlation with causation
- confusing zero-sum games with positive-sum games
- not seeing how economics/psychology/biology is bounded by physics
- qualitative statements that are misleading due to the lack of quantitative data