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Energy demand scenarios (view source)

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(Created page with "If we want a better world, we have to get a sense of how much energy it would take. First we look at the status quo, then we envision some hypothetical scenarios. File:energy-demand-status-quo.png File:energy-demand-developed.png ==Methodologies== First we define the scale (X axis) (same for every bar graph): : 1 pixel = 24 Mtoe/year {{dp |px |24 Mtoe/year |The X axis scale for the bar graphs |1 pixel = 24 Mtoe/year }} ===Status quo=== Using data from I...")
 
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[[File:energy-demand-status-quo.png]]
[[File:energy-demand-status-quo.png]]


[[File:energy-demand-developed.png]]
[[File:energy-demand-if-developed.png]]


==Methodologies==
==Methodology - general==
First we define the scale (X axis) (same for every bar graph):
First we define the scale (X axis) (same for every bar graph):
: 1 pixel = 24 Mtoe/year
: 1 pixel ≡ 32 Mtoe/year


{{dp
{{dp
|px
|px
|24 Mtoe/year
|32 Mtoe/year
|The X axis scale for the bar graphs
|1 pixel on the X axis scale of the bar graphs
|1 pixel = 24 Mtoe/year
|
}}
}}


===Status quo===
The next sections are the methodologies for each bar graph.
 
==Status quo==


Using data from IEA (international energy agency):
Using data from IEA (international energy agency):
Line 23: Line 25:


Source (1) has general stats about worldwide total final energy consumption (TFC), and what share of that is used in industry and transport.<br />
Source (1) has general stats about worldwide total final energy consumption (TFC), and what share of that is used in industry and transport.<br />
Source (2) has more detailed breakdowns for energy usage types, but they are only based on a handful of countries (mostly developed countries).<br />
Source (2) has more detailed breakdowns for energy usage types, but they are only based on a handful of countries - mostly developed countries {{x|Australia, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, New Zealand, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States.}}.
 
We use these together, to estimate how energy is used globally.
We use these together, to estimate how energy is used globally.
 
{{dp
Industrial: global data from (1)<br />
|energy.tfc
Transport: take subcategories from (2), scale them to match the global demand in (1)<br />
|9937.70 Mtoe/year
Residential & Commercial: take subcategories from (2), scale them to match the remainder of global demand in (1)<br />
|Global energy usage - total final consumption (TFC)
Non-energy use of fuels: global data from (1)<br />
|Includes: fuel (80.7%) + electricity (19.3%) AFTER it is generated.<br />
 
Does not include the fuel used in generating electricity.<br />
Source: (1)
}}
{{dp
|oecd.energy.tfc
|9937.70 Mtoe/year
|Global energy usage - total final consumption (TFC)
|Includes: fuel (80.7%) + electricity (19.3%) AFTER it is generated.<br />
Does not include the fuel used in generating electricity.<br />
Source: (1)
}}
{{dp
{{dp
|non_energy_use
|non_energy_use
|916.76 Mtoe/year
|916.76 Mtoe/year
|Fossil fuels used for purposes other than burning; for example making plastics
|Fossil fuels used for purposes other than burning; for example making plastics
|Worldwide total. Measured in energy units. Source: (1)
|Worldwide total. Measured in energy units.<br />Source: (1)
}}
}}
{{dp
{{dp
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|2890.90 Mtoe/year
|2890.90 Mtoe/year
|Transporation's energy usage - worldwide total
|Transporation's energy usage - worldwide total
|Includes passenger and freight/cargo. Source: (1)
|Includes passenger and freight/cargo.<br />Source: (1)
}}
{{dp
|buildings.energy
|3290.73 Mtoe/year
|Energy used in all buildings including houses - worldwide total
|Source: (1) - second row from the bottom ("Other") - rightmost column ("Total")
}}
{{dp
|transport.stfc
|33.0%
|All transportation - share of total final energy consumption
|Based on 16 developed countries.<br />Source: (2)
}}
{{dp
|passenger_road_transport.stfc
|20.1%
|Passenger road vehicles - share of total final energy consumption
|Includes cars, vans, buses, etc.<br />Based on 16 developed countries.<br />Source:(2)
}}
{{dp
|freight_road_transport.stfc
|9.0%
|Freight road vehicles - share of total final energy consumption
|Includes the trucks that transport goods.<br />Based on 16 developed countries.<br />Source: (2)
}}
{{dp
|air_and_water_transport.stfc
|3.2%
|Planes, ships and boats - share of total final energy consumption
|Includes both passenger and cargo.<br />Based on 16 developed countries.<br />Source: (2)
}}
{{dp
|rail_transport.stfc
|0.7%
|Trains - share of total final energy consumption
|Based on 16 developed countries.<br />Source: (2)
}}
{{dp
|manufacturing.stfc
|24.7%
|Manufacturing - share of total final energy consumption
|Based on 16 developed countries.<br />Source: (2)
}}
{{dp
|agriculture.stfc
|2.3%
|Agriculture - share of total final energy consumption
|Based on 16 developed countries.<br />Source: (2)
}}
{{dp
|mining.stfc
|3.9%
|Mining - share of total final energy consumption
|Based on 16 developed countries.<br />Source: (2)
}}
{{dp
|construction.stfc
|1.2%
|Construction - share of total final energy consumption
|Based on 16 developed countries.<br />Source: (2)
}}
{{dp
|residential.stfc
|20.8%
|Homes - share of total final energy consumption
|Based on 16 developed countries.<br />Source: (2)
}}
{{dp
|services.stfc
|14.1%
|Commercial and public spaces - share of total final energy consumption
|Based on 16 developed countries.<br />Source: (2)
}}
{{dp
|cooling_air_residential.stfc
|0.8%
|Cooling (air conditioning) - share of total final energy consumption
|Based on 16 developed countries.<br />Source: (2)
}}
{{dp
|heating_air_residential.stfc
|10.8%
|Home heating - share of total final energy consumption
|Does not include water heating.<br />Based on 16 developed countries.<br />Source: (2)
}}
{{dp
|heating_water_residential.stfc
|3.2%
|Home water heaters (hot water) - share of total final energy consumption
|Based on 16 developed countries.<br />Source: (2)
}}
{{dp
|industrial.stfc
|manufacturing.stfc + mining.stfc + construction.stfc + agriculture.stfc
|Industrial - share of total final energy consumption
|Based on 16 developed countries.<br />Source: (2)
<br />Note that this is wildly different from ''industry.energy'' which is global. That's because a lot of manufacturing happens in poorer countries.
}}
 
 
'''Residential heating'''
{{calc
|heating_air_residential.stfc / (residential.stfc+services.stfc) * buildings.energy
|px |rh
}}
 
'''Residential hot water'''
{{calc
|heating_water_residential.stfc / (residential.stfc+services.stfc) * buildings.energy
|px |rw
}}
 
'''Residential cooling'''
{{calc
|cooling_air_residential.stfc / (residential.stfc+services.stfc) * buildings.energy
|px |rc
}}
 
'''Residential other''' {{x|includes cooking, appliances, lighting, computers etc.}}
{{calc
|residential.stfc / (residential.stfc+services.stfc) * buildings.energy - rh - rw - rc
|px |ro
}}
 
 
'''Commercial & public spaces''' {{x|No data available on how much is heating vs nonheating.}}
{{calc
|services.stfc / (residential.stfc+services.stfc) * buildings.energy
|px |cp
}}
 
 
'''Road vehicles (passenger)'''
{{calc
|passenger_road_transport.stfc / transport.stfc * transport.energy
|px |pr
}}
 
 
'''Road vehicles (freight trucks)'''
{{calc
|freight_road_transport.stfc / transport.stfc * transport.energy
|px |fr
}}
 
 
'''Ships, trains, planes'''
{{calc
|(air_and_water_transport.stfc+rail_transport.stfc) / transport.stfc * transport.energy
|px |aw
}}
 
 
'''Industrial'''
{{calc
|industry.energy
|px
}}
 
 
'''Non-energy use of fuels''' {{x|Included in order to match the ''energy supply'' bar chart on the main [[energy]] page.}}
{{calc
|non_energy_use
|px
}}
 
 
'''Total final consumption'''
{{calc
|rh + rw + rc + ro + cp + pr + fr + aw + industry.energy + non_energy_use
|Mtoe/year
}}
 
==If every country was as "developed" as western nations==
Take the numbers from the status quo, and scale up ''some'' of them.
 
Use the ratio of energy-per-capita, in developed countries vs world average.
{{dp
|<nowiki>oecd.energy.tfc</nowiki>
|<nowiki>3784.37 Mtoe/year</nowiki>
|<nowiki>OECD countries - energy usage - total final consumption</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Key World Energy Statistics 2020 (IEA report)</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
- Page 49: OECD energy balance, 2018</nowiki>
}}
{{dp
|<nowiki>oecd.population</nowiki>
|<nowiki>1291087000</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Number of people living in OECD countries</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Source: [PDF] Population and Migration - OECD</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
Using data from 2020</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
OECD countries are: Austria, Australia, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States.</nowiki>
}}
{{dp
|<nowiki>world.population</nowiki>
|<nowiki>7.875 billion</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Number of people alive today, globally</nowiki>
|<nowiki>https://www.unfpa.org/data/world-population-dashboard</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
Last updated in 2021</nowiki>
}}
{{calc
|oecd.energy.tfc / oecd.population * world.population / energy.tfc
|
|scale_up
}}
 
 
'''Residential heating''' - not scaled, because most developing countries are in warm climates.
{{calc
|rh
|px
}}
 
 
'''Residential more''' - scaled
{{calc
|rw * scale_up
|px
}}
{{calc
|rc * scale_up
|px
}}
{{calc
|ro * scale_up
|px
}}
 
 
'''Commercial & public spaces'''<br />
We have to scale just the ''non-heating'' component, but we don't have exact data on it. Best estimate: assume that the status quo is 50/50 heating & nonheating (similar to residential). So we scale up half of it.
{{calc
|50% cp + 50% cp*scale_up
|px
}}
 
 
'''Transport''' - scaled
{{calc
|pr * scale_up
|px
}}
{{calc
|fr * scale_up
|px
}}
{{calc
|aw * scale_up
|px
}}
 
 
'''Industrial''' - scaled {{x|because even though some developing countries have a lot of industry already, much of it goes to making goods that get exported to developed countries. So to make that kind of material wealth for the whole world, industries have to be even bigger.}}
{{calc
|industry.energy * scale_up
|px
}}
 
 
'''Non-energy use of fuels''' - scaled
{{calc
|non_energy_use * scale_up
|px
}}
 
 
'''Total final consumption'''
{{calc
|rh + rw*scale_up + rc*scale_up + ro*scale_up + 50% cp + 50% cp*scale_up + pr*scale_up + fr*scale_up + aw*scale_up + industry.energy*scale_up + non_energy_use*scale_up
|Mtoe/year
}}
}}


===If every country was as "developed" as western nations===
This will be filled in soon.


===Minimum===
==Minimum==
This bar graph has not been made yet. It will be based on the [[minimal consumption scenario]].
This bar graph has not been made yet. It will be based on the [[minimal consumption scenario]].
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