Energy demand scenarios: Difference between revisions
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[[File:energy-demand-status-quo.png]] | [[File:energy-demand-status-quo.png]] | ||
[[File:energy-demand-developed.png]] | [[File:energy-demand-if-developed.png]] | ||
== | ==Methodology - general== | ||
First we define the scale (X axis) (same for every bar graph): | First we define the scale (X axis) (same for every bar graph): | ||
: 1 pixel ≡ | : 1 pixel ≡ 32 Mtoe/year | ||
{{dp | {{dp | ||
|px | |px | ||
| | |32 Mtoe/year | ||
| | |1 pixel on the X axis scale of the bar graphs | ||
| | | | ||
}} | }} | ||
The next sections are the methodologies for each bar graph. | |||
==Status quo== | |||
Using data from IEA (international energy agency): | Using data from IEA (international energy agency): | ||
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Source (1) has general stats about worldwide total final energy consumption (TFC), and what share of that is used in industry and transport.<br /> | Source (1) has general stats about worldwide total final energy consumption (TFC), and what share of that is used in industry and transport.<br /> | ||
Source (2) has more detailed breakdowns for energy usage types, but they are only based on a handful of countries - mostly developed countries {{x|Australia, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, New Zealand, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States.}}. | Source (2) has more detailed breakdowns for energy usage types, but they are only based on a handful of countries - mostly developed countries {{x|Australia, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, New Zealand, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States.}}. | ||
We use these together, to estimate how energy is used globally. | We use these together, to estimate how energy is used globally. | ||
{{dp | {{dp | ||
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'''Residential heating''' | '''Residential heating''' | ||
{{calc | {{calc | ||
|heating_air_residential.stfc / (residential.stfc+services.stfc) * buildings.energy | |heating_air_residential.stfc / (residential.stfc+services.stfc) * buildings.energy | ||
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}} | }} | ||
'''Residential hot water''' | |||
{{calc | |||
|heating_water_residential.stfc / (residential.stfc+services.stfc) * buildings.energy | |||
|px |rw | |||
}} | |||
'''Residential cooling''' | |||
{{calc | |||
|cooling_air_residential.stfc / (residential.stfc+services.stfc) * buildings.energy | |||
|px |rc | |||
}} | |||
'''Residential other''' {{x| | '''Residential other''' {{x|includes cooking, appliances, lighting, computers etc.}} | ||
{{calc | {{calc | ||
| | |residential.stfc / (residential.stfc+services.stfc) * buildings.energy - rh - rw - rc | ||
|px |ro | |px |ro | ||
}} | }} | ||
'''Commercial & public''' {{x|No data available on how much is heating vs nonheating.}} | '''Commercial & public spaces''' {{x|No data available on how much is heating vs nonheating.}} | ||
{{calc | {{calc | ||
|services.stfc / (residential.stfc+services.stfc) * buildings.energy | |services.stfc / (residential.stfc+services.stfc) * buildings.energy | ||
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{{calc | {{calc | ||
|passenger_road_transport.stfc / transport.stfc * transport.energy | |passenger_road_transport.stfc / transport.stfc * transport.energy | ||
|px | | |px |pr | ||
}} | }} | ||
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{{calc | {{calc | ||
|freight_road_transport.stfc / transport.stfc * transport.energy | |freight_road_transport.stfc / transport.stfc * transport.energy | ||
|px | | |px |fr | ||
}} | }} | ||
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'''Total final consumption''' | |||
{{calc | |||
|rh + rw + rc + ro + cp + pr + fr + aw + industry.energy + non_energy_use | |||
|Mtoe/year | |||
}} | |||
==If every country was as "developed" as western nations== | |||
Take the numbers from the status quo, and scale up ''some'' of them. | Take the numbers from the status quo, and scale up ''some'' of them. | ||
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'''Residential | '''Residential more''' - scaled | ||
{{calc | |||
|rw * scale_up | |||
|px | |||
}} | |||
{{calc | |||
|rc * scale_up | |||
|px | |||
}} | |||
{{calc | {{calc | ||
|ro * scale_up | |ro * scale_up | ||
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'''Commercial & public'''<br /> | '''Commercial & public spaces'''<br /> | ||
We have to scale just the ''non-heating'' component, but we don't have exact data on it. Best estimate: assume that the status quo is 50/50 heating & nonheating (similar to residential). So we scale up half of it. | We have to scale just the ''non-heating'' component, but we don't have exact data on it. Best estimate: assume that the status quo is 50/50 heating & nonheating (similar to residential). So we scale up half of it. | ||
{{calc | {{calc | ||
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|px | |px | ||
}} | }} | ||
'''Transport''' - scaled | '''Transport''' - scaled | ||
{{calc | {{calc | ||
| | |pr * scale_up | ||
|px | |px | ||
}} | }} | ||
{{calc | {{calc | ||
| | |fr * scale_up | ||
|px | |px | ||
}} | }} | ||
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|px | |px | ||
}} | }} | ||
'''Industrial''' - scaled {{x|because even though some developing countries have a lot of industry already, much of it goes to making goods that get exported to developed countries. So to make that kind of material wealth for the whole world, industries have to be even bigger.}} | '''Industrial''' - scaled {{x|because even though some developing countries have a lot of industry already, much of it goes to making goods that get exported to developed countries. So to make that kind of material wealth for the whole world, industries have to be even bigger.}} | ||
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|px | |px | ||
}} | }} | ||
'''Non-energy use of fuels''' - scaled | '''Non-energy use of fuels''' - scaled | ||
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}} | }} | ||
'''Total final consumption''' | |||
{{calc | |||
|rh + rw*scale_up + rc*scale_up + ro*scale_up + 50% cp + 50% cp*scale_up + pr*scale_up + fr*scale_up + aw*scale_up + industry.energy*scale_up + non_energy_use*scale_up | |||
|Mtoe/year | |||
}} | |||
==Minimum== | |||
This bar graph has not been made yet. It will be based on the [[minimal consumption scenario]]. | This bar graph has not been made yet. It will be based on the [[minimal consumption scenario]]. |
Latest revision as of 03:40, 31 May 2022
If we want a better world, we have to get a sense of how much energy it would take. First we look at the status quo, then we envision some hypothetical scenarios.
Methodology - general
First we define the scale (X axis) (same for every bar graph):
- 1 pixel ≡ 32 Mtoe/year
The next sections are the methodologies for each bar graph.
Status quo
Using data from IEA (international energy agency):
- (1) IEA, Key World Energy Statistics 2020 - Page 47 - Simplified energy balance table - World energy balance, 2018
- (2) IEA (2021), Energy Efficiency Indicators: Overview, IEA, Paris - https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-efficiency-indicators-overview
Source (1) has general stats about worldwide total final energy consumption (TFC), and what share of that is used in industry and transport.
Source (2) has more detailed breakdowns for energy usage types, but they are only based on a handful of countries - mostly developed countries
We use these together, to estimate how energy is used globally.
Does not include the fuel used in generating electricity.
Source: (1)
Does not include the fuel used in generating electricity.
Source: (1)
Source: (1)
Source: (1)
Source: (2)
Based on 16 developed countries.
Source:(2)
Based on 16 developed countries.
Source: (2)
Based on 16 developed countries.
Source: (2)
Source: (2)
Source: (2)
Source: (2)
Source: (2)
Source: (2)
Source: (2)
Source: (2)
Source: (2)
Based on 16 developed countries.
Source: (2)
Source: (2)
Source: (2)
Note that this is wildly different from industry.energy which is global. That's because a lot of manufacturing happens in poorer countries.
Residential heating
(calculation loading)
Residential hot water (calculation loading)
Residential cooling (calculation loading)
Residential other
Commercial & public spaces
Road vehicles (passenger)
(calculation loading)
Road vehicles (freight trucks)
(calculation loading)
Ships, trains, planes
(calculation loading)
Industrial
(calculation loading)
Non-energy use of fuels
Total final consumption
(calculation loading)
If every country was as "developed" as western nations
Take the numbers from the status quo, and scale up some of them.
Use the ratio of energy-per-capita, in developed countries vs world average.
- Page 49: OECD energy balance, 2018
Using data from 2020
OECD countries are: Austria, Australia, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States.
Last updated in 2021
(calculation loading)
Residential heating - not scaled, because most developing countries are in warm climates.
(calculation loading)
Residential more - scaled
(calculation loading)
(calculation loading)
(calculation loading)
Commercial & public spaces
We have to scale just the non-heating component, but we don't have exact data on it. Best estimate: assume that the status quo is 50/50 heating & nonheating (similar to residential). So we scale up half of it.
(calculation loading)
Transport - scaled
(calculation loading)
(calculation loading)
(calculation loading)
Industrial - scaled
Non-energy use of fuels - scaled
(calculation loading)
Total final consumption
(calculation loading)
Minimum
This bar graph has not been made yet. It will be based on the minimal consumption scenario.