Energy demand scenarios

If we want a better world, we have to get a sense of how much energy it would take. First we look at the status quo, then we envision some hypothetical scenarios.

File:energy-demand-developed.png

Methodologies

First we define the scale (X axis) (same for every bar graph):

1 pixel = 24 Mtoe/year

px

24 Mtoe/year

The X axis scale for the bar graphs

Status quo

Using data from IEA (international energy agency):

• (1) IEA, Key World Energy Statistics 2020 - Page 47 - Simplified energy balance table - World energy balance, 2018
• (2) IEA (2021), Energy Efficiency Indicators: Overview, IEA, Paris - https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-efficiency-indicators-overview

Source (1) has general stats about worldwide total final energy consumption (TFC), and what share of that is used in industry and transport.
Source (2) has more detailed breakdowns for energy usage types, but they are only based on a handful of countries - mostly developed countries (...)( Australia, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, New Zealand, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States. ).
We use these together, to estimate how energy is used globally.

Industrial: global data from (1)
Transport: take subcategories from (2), scale them to match the global demand in (1)
Residential & Commercial: take subcategories from (2), scale them to match the remainder of global demand in (1)
Non-energy use of fuels: global data from (1)

non_energy_use

916.76 Mtoe/year

Fossil fuels used for purposes other than burning; for example making plastics

Worldwide total. Measured in energy units.
Source: (1)

industry.energy

2839.31 Mtoe/year

Industrial energy usage - worldwide total

Source: (1)

transport.energy

2890.90 Mtoe/year

Transporation's energy usage - worldwide total

Includes passenger and freight/cargo.
Source: (1)

buildings.energy

3290.73 Mtoe/year

Energy usage in all homes + other buildings (worldwide total)

Source: (1) - second row from the bottom ("Other") - rightmost column ("Total")

transport.stfc

33.0%

All transportation - share of total final energy consumption

Based on 16 developed countries.
Source: (2)

passenger_road_transport.stfc

20.1%

Passenger road vehicles - share of total final energy consumption

Includes cars, vans, buses, etc.
Based on 16 developed countries.
Source:(2)

freight_road_transport.stfc

9.0%

Freight road vehicles - share of total final energy consumption

Includes the trucks that transport goods.
Based on 16 developed countries.
Source: (2)

air_and_water_transport.stfc

3.2%

Planes, ships and boats - share of total final energy consumption

Includes both passenger and cargo.
Based on 16 developed countries.
Source: (2)

rail_transport.stfc

0.7%

Trains - share of total final energy consumption

Based on 16 developed countries.
Source: (2)

manufacturing.stfc

24.7%

Manufacturing - share of total final energy consumption

Based on 16 developed countries.
Source: (2)

agriculture.stfc

2.3%

Agriculture - share of total final energy consumption

Based on 16 developed countries.
Source: (2)

mining.stfc

3.9%

Mining - share of total final energy consumption

Based on 16 developed countries.
Source: (2)

construction.stfc

1.2%

Construction - share of total final energy consumption

Based on 16 developed countries.
Source: (2)

residential.stfc

20.8%

Homes - share of total final energy consumption

Based on 16 developed countries.
Source: (2)

services.stfc

14.1%

Commercial and public spaces - share of total final energy consumption

Based on 16 developed countries.
Source: (2)

cooling_air_residential.stfc

0.8%

Cooling (air conditioning) - share of total final energy consumption

Based on 16 developed countries.
Source: (2)

heating_air_residential.stfc

10.8%

Home heating - share of total final energy consumption

Does not include water heating.
Based on 16 developed countries.
Source: (2)

heating_water_residential.stfc

3.2%

Home water heaters (hot water) - share of total final energy consumption

Based on 16 developed countries.
Source: (2)

industrial.stfc

manufacturing.stfc + mining.stfc + construction.stfc + agriculture.stfc

Industrial - share of total final energy consumption

Based on 16 developed countries.
Source: (2)

Note that this is wildly different from industry.energy which is global. That's because a lot of manufacturing happens in poorer countries.

Residential heating heating_air_residential.stfc / (residential.stfc+services.stfc) * buildings.energy px (calculation loading)

Residential other (residential.stfc-heating_air_residential.stfc) / (residential.stfc+services.stfc) * buildings.energy px (calculation loading)

Commercial & public services.stfc / (residential.stfc+services.stfc) * buildings.energy px (calculation loading)

Road vehicles (passenger) passenger_road_transport.stfc / transport.stfc * transport.energy px (calculation loading)

Road vehicles (freight trucks) freight_road_transport.stfc / transport.stfc * transport.energy px (calculation loading)

Ships, trains, planes (air_and_water_transport.stfc+rail_transport.stfc) / transport.stfc * transport.energy px (calculation loading)

Industrial industry.energy px (calculation loading)

Non-energy use of fuels non_energy_use px (calculation loading)

If every country was as "developed" as western nations

This will be filled in soon.

Minimum

This bar graph has not been made yet. It will be based on the minimal consumption scenario.