Energy demand scenarios: Difference between revisions
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==Methodologies== | ==Methodologies== | ||
First we define the scale (X axis) (same for every bar graph): | First we define the scale (X axis) (same for every bar graph): | ||
: 1 pixel | : 1 pixel ≡ 24 Mtoe/year | ||
{{dp | {{dp | ||
Line 13: | Line 13: | ||
|24 Mtoe/year | |24 Mtoe/year | ||
|The X axis scale for the bar graphs | |The X axis scale for the bar graphs | ||
|1 pixel | |1 pixel ≡ 24 Mtoe/year | ||
}} | }} | ||
Line 25: | Line 25: | ||
Source (2) has more detailed breakdowns for energy usage types, but they are only based on a handful of countries - mostly developed countries {{x|Australia, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, New Zealand, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States.}}.<br /> | Source (2) has more detailed breakdowns for energy usage types, but they are only based on a handful of countries - mostly developed countries {{x|Australia, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, New Zealand, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States.}}.<br /> | ||
We use these together, to estimate how energy is used globally. | We use these together, to estimate how energy is used globally. | ||
{{dp | |||
|energy.tfc | |||
|9937.70 Mtoe/year | |||
|Global energy usage - total final consumption (TFC) | |||
|Includes: fuel (80.7%) + electricity (19.3%) AFTER it is generated.<br /> | |||
Does not include the fuel used in generating electricity.<br /> | |||
Source: (1) | |||
}} | |||
{{dp | |||
|oecd.energy.tfc | |||
|9937.70 Mtoe/year | |||
|Global energy usage - total final consumption (TFC) | |||
|Includes: fuel (80.7%) + electricity (19.3%) AFTER it is generated.<br /> | |||
Does not include the fuel used in generating electricity.<br /> | |||
Source: (1) | |||
}} | |||
{{dp | {{dp | ||
|non_energy_use | |non_energy_use | ||
Line 52: | Line 62: | ||
|buildings.energy | |buildings.energy | ||
|3290.73 Mtoe/year | |3290.73 Mtoe/year | ||
|Energy | |Energy used in all buildings including houses - worldwide total | ||
|Source: (1) - second row from the bottom ("Other") - rightmost column ("Total") | |Source: (1) - second row from the bottom ("Other") - rightmost column ("Total") | ||
}} | }} | ||
Line 147: | Line 157: | ||
}} | }} | ||
'''Residential heating''' | |||
'''Residential heating''' {{x|Does not include water heating.}} | |||
{{calc | {{calc | ||
|heating_air_residential.stfc / (residential.stfc+services.stfc) * buildings.energy | |heating_air_residential.stfc / (residential.stfc+services.stfc) * buildings.energy | ||
|px | |px |rh | ||
}} | }} | ||
'''Residential other''' | |||
'''Residential other''' {{x|Includes cooling, water heating, lighting, appliances, computers etc.}} | |||
{{calc | {{calc | ||
|(residential.stfc-heating_air_residential.stfc) / (residential.stfc+services.stfc) * buildings.energy | |(residential.stfc-heating_air_residential.stfc) / (residential.stfc+services.stfc) * buildings.energy | ||
|px | |px |ro | ||
}} | }} | ||
'''Commercial & public''' | |||
'''Commercial & public''' {{x|No data available on how much is heating vs nonheating.}} | |||
{{calc | {{calc | ||
|services.stfc / (residential.stfc+services.stfc) * buildings.energy | |services.stfc / (residential.stfc+services.stfc) * buildings.energy | ||
|px | |px |cp | ||
}} | }} | ||
'''Road vehicles (passenger)''' | '''Road vehicles (passenger)''' | ||
{{calc | {{calc | ||
|passenger_road_transport.stfc / transport.stfc * transport.energy | |passenger_road_transport.stfc / transport.stfc * transport.energy | ||
|px | |px |rp | ||
}} | }} | ||
'''Road vehicles (freight trucks)''' | '''Road vehicles (freight trucks)''' | ||
{{calc | {{calc | ||
|freight_road_transport.stfc / transport.stfc * transport.energy | |freight_road_transport.stfc / transport.stfc * transport.energy | ||
|px | |px |rf | ||
}} | }} | ||
'''Ships, trains, planes''' | '''Ships, trains, planes''' | ||
{{calc | {{calc | ||
|(air_and_water_transport.stfc+rail_transport.stfc) / transport.stfc * transport.energy | |(air_and_water_transport.stfc+rail_transport.stfc) / transport.stfc * transport.energy | ||
|px | |px |aw | ||
}} | }} | ||
'''Industrial''' | '''Industrial''' | ||
Line 189: | Line 206: | ||
}} | }} | ||
'''Non-energy use of fuels''' | |||
'''Non-energy use of fuels''' {{x|Included in order to match the ''energy supply'' bar chart on the main [[energy]] page.}} | |||
{{calc | {{calc | ||
|non_energy_use | |non_energy_use | ||
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===If every country was as "developed" as western nations=== | ===If every country was as "developed" as western nations=== | ||
Take the numbers from the status quo, and scale up ''some'' of them. | |||
Use the ratio of energy-per-capita, in developed countries vs world average. | |||
{{dp | |||
|<nowiki>oecd.energy.tfc</nowiki> | |||
|<nowiki>3784.37 Mtoe/year</nowiki> | |||
|<nowiki>OECD countries - energy usage - total final consumption</nowiki> | |||
|<nowiki>Key World Energy Statistics 2020 (IEA report)</nowiki><br /><nowiki> | |||
- Page 49: OECD energy balance, 2018</nowiki> | |||
}} | |||
{{dp | |||
|<nowiki>oecd.population</nowiki> | |||
|<nowiki>1291087000</nowiki> | |||
|<nowiki>Number of people living in OECD countries</nowiki> | |||
|<nowiki>Source: [PDF] Population and Migration - OECD</nowiki><br /><nowiki> | |||
Using data from 2020</nowiki><br /><nowiki> | |||
</nowiki><br /><nowiki> | |||
OECD countries are: Austria, Australia, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States.</nowiki> | |||
}} | |||
{{dp | |||
|<nowiki>world.population</nowiki> | |||
|<nowiki>7.875 billion</nowiki> | |||
|<nowiki>Number of people alive today, globally</nowiki> | |||
|<nowiki>https://www.unfpa.org/data/world-population-dashboard</nowiki><br /><nowiki> | |||
Last updated in 2021</nowiki> | |||
}} | |||
{{calc | |||
|oecd.energy.tfc / oecd.population * world.population / energy.tfc | |||
| | |||
|scale_up | |||
}} | |||
'''Residential heating''' - not scaled, because most developing countries are in warm climates. | |||
{{calc | |||
|rh | |||
|px | |||
}} | |||
'''Residential other''' - scaled | |||
{{calc | |||
|ro * scale_up | |||
|px | |||
}} | |||
'''Commercial & public'''<br /> | |||
We have to scale just the ''non-heating'' component, but we don't have exact data on it. Best estimate: assume that the status quo is 50/50 heating & nonheating (similar to residential). So we scale up half of it. | |||
{{calc | |||
|50% cp + 50% cp*scale_up | |||
|px | |||
}} | |||
'''Transport''' - scaled | |||
{{calc | |||
|rf * scale_up | |||
|px | |||
}} | |||
{{calc | |||
|rp * scale_up | |||
|px | |||
}} | |||
{{calc | |||
|aw * scale_up | |||
|px | |||
}} | |||
'''Industrial''' - scaled {{x|because even though some developing countries have a lot of industry already, much of it goes to making goods that get exported to developed countries. So to make that kind of material wealth for the whole world, industries have to be even bigger.}} | |||
{{calc | |||
|industry.energy * scale_up | |||
|px | |||
}} | |||
'''Non-energy use of fuels''' - scaled | |||
{{calc | |||
|non_energy_use * scale_up | |||
|px | |||
}} | |||
===Minimum=== | ===Minimum=== | ||
This bar graph has not been made yet. It will be based on the [[minimal consumption scenario]]. | This bar graph has not been made yet. It will be based on the [[minimal consumption scenario]]. |
Revision as of 23:47, 28 May 2022
If we want a better world, we have to get a sense of how much energy it would take. First we look at the status quo, then we envision some hypothetical scenarios.
File:energy-demand-developed.png
Methodologies
First we define the scale (X axis) (same for every bar graph):
- 1 pixel ≡ 24 Mtoe/year
Status quo
Using data from IEA (international energy agency):
- (1) IEA, Key World Energy Statistics 2020 - Page 47 - Simplified energy balance table - World energy balance, 2018
- (2) IEA (2021), Energy Efficiency Indicators: Overview, IEA, Paris - https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-efficiency-indicators-overview
Source (1) has general stats about worldwide total final energy consumption (TFC), and what share of that is used in industry and transport.
Source (2) has more detailed breakdowns for energy usage types, but they are only based on a handful of countries - mostly developed countries
We use these together, to estimate how energy is used globally.
Does not include the fuel used in generating electricity.
Source: (1)
Does not include the fuel used in generating electricity.
Source: (1)
Source: (1)
Source: (1)
Source: (2)
Based on 16 developed countries.
Source:(2)
Based on 16 developed countries.
Source: (2)
Based on 16 developed countries.
Source: (2)
Source: (2)
Source: (2)
Source: (2)
Source: (2)
Source: (2)
Source: (2)
Source: (2)
Source: (2)
Based on 16 developed countries.
Source: (2)
Source: (2)
Source: (2)
Note that this is wildly different from industry.energy which is global. That's because a lot of manufacturing happens in poorer countries.
Residential heating
Residential other
Commercial & public
Road vehicles (passenger)
(calculation loading)
Road vehicles (freight trucks)
(calculation loading)
Ships, trains, planes
(calculation loading)
Industrial
(calculation loading)
Non-energy use of fuels
If every country was as "developed" as western nations
Take the numbers from the status quo, and scale up some of them.
Use the ratio of energy-per-capita, in developed countries vs world average.
- Page 49: OECD energy balance, 2018
Using data from 2020
OECD countries are: Austria, Australia, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States.
Last updated in 2021
(calculation loading)
Residential heating - not scaled, because most developing countries are in warm climates.
(calculation loading)
Residential other - scaled
(calculation loading)
Commercial & public
We have to scale just the non-heating component, but we don't have exact data on it. Best estimate: assume that the status quo is 50/50 heating & nonheating (similar to residential). So we scale up half of it.
(calculation loading)
Transport - scaled (calculation loading) (calculation loading) (calculation loading)
Industrial - scaled
Non-energy use of fuels - scaled (calculation loading)
Minimum
This bar graph has not been made yet. It will be based on the minimal consumption scenario.