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Energy demand scenarios (view source)

Revision as of 23:47, 28 May 2022

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==Methodologies==
==Methodologies==
First we define the scale (X axis) (same for every bar graph):
First we define the scale (X axis) (same for every bar graph):
: 1 pixel = 24 Mtoe/year
: 1 pixel ≡ 24 Mtoe/year


{{dp
{{dp
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|24 Mtoe/year
|24 Mtoe/year
|The X axis scale for the bar graphs
|The X axis scale for the bar graphs
|1 pixel = 24 Mtoe/year
|1 pixel ≡ 24 Mtoe/year
}}
}}


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Source (2) has more detailed breakdowns for energy usage types, but they are only based on a handful of countries - mostly developed countries {{x|Australia, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, New Zealand, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States.}}.<br />
Source (2) has more detailed breakdowns for energy usage types, but they are only based on a handful of countries - mostly developed countries {{x|Australia, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, New Zealand, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States.}}.<br />
We use these together, to estimate how energy is used globally.
We use these together, to estimate how energy is used globally.
 
{{dp
Industrial: global data from (1)<br />
|energy.tfc
Transport: take subcategories from (2), scale them to match the global demand in (1)<br />
|9937.70 Mtoe/year
Residential & Commercial: take subcategories from (2), scale them to match the remainder of global demand in (1)<br />
|Global energy usage - total final consumption (TFC)
Non-energy use of fuels: global data from (1)<br />
|Includes: fuel (80.7%) + electricity (19.3%) AFTER it is generated.<br />
 
Does not include the fuel used in generating electricity.<br />
Source: (1)
}}
{{dp
|oecd.energy.tfc
|9937.70 Mtoe/year
|Global energy usage - total final consumption (TFC)
|Includes: fuel (80.7%) + electricity (19.3%) AFTER it is generated.<br />
Does not include the fuel used in generating electricity.<br />
Source: (1)
}}
{{dp
{{dp
|non_energy_use
|non_energy_use
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|buildings.energy
|buildings.energy
|3290.73 Mtoe/year
|3290.73 Mtoe/year
|Energy usage in all homes + other buildings (worldwide total)
|Energy used in all buildings including houses - worldwide total
|Source: (1) - second row from the bottom ("Other") - rightmost column ("Total")
|Source: (1) - second row from the bottom ("Other") - rightmost column ("Total")
}}
}}
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}}
}}


'''Residential heating'''
 
'''Residential heating''' {{x|Does not include water heating.}}
{{calc
{{calc
|heating_air_residential.stfc / (residential.stfc+services.stfc) * buildings.energy
|heating_air_residential.stfc / (residential.stfc+services.stfc) * buildings.energy
|px
|px |rh
}}
}}


'''Residential other'''
 
'''Residential other''' {{x|Includes cooling, water heating, lighting, appliances, computers etc.}}
{{calc
{{calc
|(residential.stfc-heating_air_residential.stfc) / (residential.stfc+services.stfc) * buildings.energy
|(residential.stfc-heating_air_residential.stfc) / (residential.stfc+services.stfc) * buildings.energy
|px
|px |ro
}}
}}


'''Commercial & public'''
 
'''Commercial & public''' {{x|No data available on how much is heating vs nonheating.}}
{{calc
{{calc
|services.stfc / (residential.stfc+services.stfc) * buildings.energy
|services.stfc / (residential.stfc+services.stfc) * buildings.energy
|px
|px |cp
}}
}}


'''Road vehicles (passenger)'''
'''Road vehicles (passenger)'''
{{calc
{{calc
|passenger_road_transport.stfc / transport.stfc * transport.energy
|passenger_road_transport.stfc / transport.stfc * transport.energy
|px
|px |rp
}}
}}


'''Road vehicles (freight trucks)'''
'''Road vehicles (freight trucks)'''
{{calc
{{calc
|freight_road_transport.stfc / transport.stfc * transport.energy
|freight_road_transport.stfc / transport.stfc * transport.energy
|px
|px |rf
}}
}}


'''Ships, trains, planes'''
'''Ships, trains, planes'''
{{calc
{{calc
|(air_and_water_transport.stfc+rail_transport.stfc) / transport.stfc * transport.energy
|(air_and_water_transport.stfc+rail_transport.stfc) / transport.stfc * transport.energy
|px
|px |aw
}}
}}


'''Industrial'''
'''Industrial'''
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}}
}}


'''Non-energy use of fuels'''
 
'''Non-energy use of fuels''' {{x|Included in order to match the ''energy supply'' bar chart on the main [[energy]] page.}}
{{calc
{{calc
|non_energy_use
|non_energy_use
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===If every country was as "developed" as western nations===
===If every country was as "developed" as western nations===
This will be filled in soon.
Take the numbers from the status quo, and scale up ''some'' of them.
 
Use the ratio of energy-per-capita, in developed countries vs world average.
{{dp
|<nowiki>oecd.energy.tfc</nowiki>
|<nowiki>3784.37 Mtoe/year</nowiki>
|<nowiki>OECD countries - energy usage - total final consumption</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Key World Energy Statistics 2020 (IEA report)</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
- Page 49: OECD energy balance, 2018</nowiki>
}}
{{dp
|<nowiki>oecd.population</nowiki>
|<nowiki>1291087000</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Number of people living in OECD countries</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Source: [PDF] Population and Migration - OECD</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
Using data from 2020</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
OECD countries are: Austria, Australia, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States.</nowiki>
}}
{{dp
|<nowiki>world.population</nowiki>
|<nowiki>7.875 billion</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Number of people alive today, globally</nowiki>
|<nowiki>https://www.unfpa.org/data/world-population-dashboard</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
Last updated in 2021</nowiki>
}}
{{calc
|oecd.energy.tfc / oecd.population * world.population / energy.tfc
|
|scale_up
}}
 
 
'''Residential heating''' - not scaled, because most developing countries are in warm climates.
{{calc
|rh
|px
}}
 
 
'''Residential other''' - scaled
{{calc
|ro * scale_up
|px
}}
 
 
'''Commercial & public'''<br />
We have to scale just the ''non-heating'' component, but we don't have exact data on it. Best estimate: assume that the status quo is 50/50 heating & nonheating (similar to residential). So we scale up half of it.
{{calc
|50% cp + 50% cp*scale_up
|px
}}
 
'''Transport''' - scaled
{{calc
|rf * scale_up
|px
}}
{{calc
|rp * scale_up
|px
}}
{{calc
|aw * scale_up
|px
}}
 
'''Industrial''' - scaled {{x|because even though some developing countries have a lot of industry already, much of it goes to making goods that get exported to developed countries. So to make that kind of material wealth for the whole world, industries have to be even bigger.}}
{{calc
|industry.energy * scale_up
|px
}}
 
'''Non-energy use of fuels''' - scaled
{{calc
|non_energy_use * scale_up
|px
}}


===Minimum===
===Minimum===
This bar graph has not been made yet. It will be based on the [[minimal consumption scenario]].
This bar graph has not been made yet. It will be based on the [[minimal consumption scenario]].
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