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Energy demand scenarios: Difference between revisions

Energy demand scenarios (view source)

Revision as of 22:19, 28 May 2022

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(Created page with "If we want a better world, we have to get a sense of how much energy it would take. First we look at the status quo, then we envision some hypothetical scenarios. File:energy-demand-status-quo.png File:energy-demand-developed.png ==Methodologies== First we define the scale (X axis) (same for every bar graph): : 1 pixel = 24 Mtoe/year {{dp |px |24 Mtoe/year |The X axis scale for the bar graphs |1 pixel = 24 Mtoe/year }} ===Status quo=== Using data from I...")
 
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Source (1) has general stats about worldwide total final energy consumption (TFC), and what share of that is used in industry and transport.<br />
Source (1) has general stats about worldwide total final energy consumption (TFC), and what share of that is used in industry and transport.<br />
Source (2) has more detailed breakdowns for energy usage types, but they are only based on a handful of countries (mostly developed countries).<br />
Source (2) has more detailed breakdowns for energy usage types, but they are only based on a handful of countries - mostly developed countries {{x|Australia, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, New Zealand, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States.}}.<br />
We use these together, to estimate how energy is used globally.
We use these together, to estimate how energy is used globally.


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|916.76 Mtoe/year
|916.76 Mtoe/year
|Fossil fuels used for purposes other than burning; for example making plastics
|Fossil fuels used for purposes other than burning; for example making plastics
|Worldwide total. Measured in energy units. Source: (1)
|Worldwide total. Measured in energy units.<br />Source: (1)
}}
}}
{{dp
{{dp
Line 47: Line 47:
|2890.90 Mtoe/year
|2890.90 Mtoe/year
|Transporation's energy usage - worldwide total
|Transporation's energy usage - worldwide total
|Includes passenger and freight/cargo. Source: (1)
|Includes passenger and freight/cargo.<br />Source: (1)
}}
}}
{{dp
|buildings.energy
|3290.73 Mtoe/year
|Energy usage in all homes + other buildings (worldwide total)
|Source: (1) - second row from the bottom ("Other") - rightmost column ("Total")
}}
{{dp
|transport.stfc
|33.0%
|All transportation - share of total final energy consumption
|Based on 16 developed countries.<br />Source: (2)
}}
{{dp
|passenger_road_transport.stfc
|20.1%
|Passenger road vehicles - share of total final energy consumption
|Includes cars, vans, buses, etc.<br />Based on 16 developed countries.<br />Source:(2)
}}
{{dp
|freight_road_transport.stfc
|9.0%
|Freight road vehicles - share of total final energy consumption
|Includes the trucks that transport goods.<br />Based on 16 developed countries.<br />Source: (2)
}}
{{dp
|air_and_water_transport.stfc
|3.2%
|Planes, ships and boats - share of total final energy consumption
|Includes both passenger and cargo.<br />Based on 16 developed countries.<br />Source: (2)
}}
{{dp
|rail_transport.stfc
|0.7%
|Trains - share of total final energy consumption
|Based on 16 developed countries.<br />Source: (2)
}}
{{dp
|manufacturing.stfc
|24.7%
|Manufacturing - share of total final energy consumption
|Based on 16 developed countries.<br />Source: (2)
}}
{{dp
|agriculture.stfc
|2.3%
|Agriculture - share of total final energy consumption
|Based on 16 developed countries.<br />Source: (2)
}}
{{dp
|mining.stfc
|3.9%
|Mining - share of total final energy consumption
|Based on 16 developed countries.<br />Source: (2)
}}
{{dp
|construction.stfc
|1.2%
|Construction - share of total final energy consumption
|Based on 16 developed countries.<br />Source: (2)
}}
{{dp
|residential.stfc
|20.8%
|Homes - share of total final energy consumption
|Based on 16 developed countries.<br />Source: (2)
}}
{{dp
|services.stfc
|14.1%
|Commercial and public spaces - share of total final energy consumption
|Based on 16 developed countries.<br />Source: (2)
}}
{{dp
|cooling_air_residential.stfc
|0.8%
|Cooling (air conditioning) - share of total final energy consumption
|Based on 16 developed countries.<br />Source: (2)
}}
{{dp
|heating_air_residential.stfc
|10.8%
|Home heating - share of total final energy consumption
|Does not include water heating.<br />Based on 16 developed countries.<br />Source: (2)
}}
{{dp
|heating_water_residential.stfc
|3.2%
|Home water heaters (hot water) - share of total final energy consumption
|Based on 16 developed countries.<br />Source: (2)
}}
{{dp
|industrial.stfc
|manufacturing.stfc + mining.stfc + construction.stfc + agriculture.stfc
|Industrial - share of total final energy consumption
|Based on 16 developed countries.<br />Source: (2)
<br />Note that this is wildly different from ''industry.energy'' which is global. That's because a lot of manufacturing happens in poorer countries.
}}
'''Residential heating'''
{{calc
|heating_air_residential.stfc / (residential.stfc+services.stfc) * buildings.energy
|px
}}
'''Residential other'''
{{calc
|(residential.stfc-heating_air_residential.stfc) / (residential.stfc+services.stfc) * buildings.energy
|px
}}
'''Commercial & public'''
{{calc
|services.stfc / (residential.stfc+services.stfc) * buildings.energy
|px
}}
'''Road vehicles (passenger)'''
{{calc
|passenger_road_transport.stfc / transport.stfc * transport.energy
|px
}}
'''Road vehicles (freight trucks)'''
{{calc
|freight_road_transport.stfc / transport.stfc * transport.energy
|px
}}
'''Ships, trains, planes'''
{{calc
|(air_and_water_transport.stfc+rail_transport.stfc) / transport.stfc * transport.energy
|px
}}
'''Industrial'''
{{calc
|industry.energy
|px
}}
'''Non-energy use of fuels'''
{{calc
|non_energy_use
|px
}}


===If every country was as "developed" as western nations===
===If every country was as "developed" as western nations===
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