Draft:Solar panels

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Scarce minerals

Major problem

The most commonly used types of solar panels contain a variety of metals too scarce to scale up (if the goal is to replace all fossil fuels). See page on solar panel minerals for more details. See solar mineral challenge for requirements & research on less mineral-intensive solar panels.

Recycling

Possible problem

Status quo: Most solar panels are not recycled. Existing recycling plants can't recover very much of the rare metals in the panels. [ELABORATION needed]

As mentioned in the section above, we'll need to use some alternative solar panel tech anyway (one that is less dependent on scarce minerals). Whichever tech we choose, there will still be some metals involved, so it's more important than ever to make sure it can be recycled in a way that recovers those metals.

Intermittency

This section has not been filled in yet.

Land usage

Reasonable
built_up_land
1500000 km^2
Urban land, suburbs, industrial areas - global total
This is home to the vast majority of people on Earth.


Does not include most farm land.

https://ourworldindata.org/land-use

rooftops_area
(1/4) built_up_land
Surface area of all rooftops in the world
Quick estimate based on the assumption that about a quarter of all "urban and build-up land" consists of rooftops or something else suitable for solar panels.
solar_panel.efficiency
17%
Efficiency of an average solar panel
Some solar panels are more efficient than this, but they tend to be expensive and contain more rare metals.
sunlight_average
200 watts per m^2
Solar irradiance, averaged over a whole year INCLUDING nights, cloudy days, etc.
Note: This varies by region.
https://www.newport.com/t/introduction-to-solar-radiation
http://www.ftexploring.com/solar-energy/insolation.htm
energy.tfc
9937.70 Mtoe/year
Global energy usage - total final consumption (TFC)
Includes: fuel (80.7%) + electricity (19.3%) AFTER it is generated.

Does not include the fuel used in generating electricity. See [energy.tes] for that.

Citation: "Key World Energy Statistics 2020" IEA
- Page 47 - Simplified energy balance table - World energy balance, 2018

In the simplest average case, solar rooftops are all that would be needed.

rooftops_area * solar_panel.efficiency * sunlight_average % energy.tfc (calculation loading) If all rooftops in the world were covered with solar panels, the energy produced is just about equal to today's global energy demand.

But of course life is more complicated:

  • Geography: Some regions may need more energy than the local rooftops can provide, while other regions may be the opposite. Power lines can only reach so far.
    • Countries with extreme temperatures need more energy for heating and cooling.
    • Local industry is a major part of energy demand, but it doesn't correlate neatly with local rooftop area.
    • Very high-density cities may not have enough rooftop space per capita. Sides of buildings have limited sun when they're obscured by other buildings.
  • Inequality: Most of the world today is in poverty. If every nation was developed, the demand for energy would be a lot higher than the status quo used in the calculation above.
  • Lower efficiency: Since conventional solar panels are too mineral-intensive to scale up, we need some alternative which will probably be less efficient at converting sunlight into electricity.

There is at least one factor that makes this easier:

In general, rooftop solar can almost always provide enough electricity for a home (and even charge an EV in many cases), but not always enough for heating. Burning hydrogen gas (generated from wind power) could probably make up the difference in most cases.

Compared to wind power, solar is far less land-intensive (...)( about 50x less, based on the fact that the atmosphere converts about 2% of the sun's energy (that hits the Earth) into winds ) but far more invasive to the land it does use.


See also