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Most road vehicles currently run on gasoline or diesel fuel, which cause [[climate change]]. One ''possible solution'' is to make vehicles electric. This comes with new challenges that aren't solved yet.
[[File:BYD Yuan Plus CRI 08 2022 7429.jpg|thumb|An electric car and charger]]
[[File:ghg-pie-chart.png|thumb|16% of the world's [[greenhouse gases|GHG]] emissions are from transportation.]]
'''Problem:''' Most vehicles today run on gasoline, diesel, or other [[fossil fuels]] that cause [[climate change]].
 
'''''Possible'' solution:''' Electric vehicles (EVs). But there are some serious challenges that must be dealt with first, before EVs can be mass-produced enough to actually make a difference for the planet.
 
{{considerations}} __NOTOC__
 
==Status quo==
* Only about 1% of vehicles on the road today are electric.
 
==Types of EVs==
By type of [[energy storage]]:
* Battery electric vehicles (most common EVs today)
* [[Fuel cell vehicles]] (very few models on the market today)
 
 
By type of vehicle:
* Passenger
** [[Electric cars]], vans and pickup trucks
** [[Electric buses]] (city and intercity)
** [[Electric planes]] (not in use, except experimentally)
* Freight
** [[Electric trucks]] (semi trucks / freight trucks)
 
 
----
__TOC__
 
==Battery minerals==
{{sum|Major problem|bad}}
The batteries in today's EVs contain large amounts of metals that are too scarce. This makes EVs expensive and unscalable.
 
More specifically:
* Almost all of today's EVs use [[lithium-ion batteries]] that are made of nickel, cobalt, manganese and of course lithium.
** '''Cobalt''' is the biggest issue: it's scarce, ''and'' its production involves child labor.
 
* [[Hydrogen]] [[fuel cell vehicles]] are based in '''platinum'''-group metals (PGMs), which are also scarce.
 
With either of these technologies, there simply aren't enough minerals available to be mined from the Earth. If we want to make all cars electric, we need to use some other type of [[energy storage]] instead. This involves tradeoffs.
 
====Possible solutions====
{{minor|To put it simply:}}
* People need to be okay with driving cheap [[short-range EVs]].
* The battery industry needs to get its s**t together and start making low-cost [[sodium-ion batteries]] (even if they aren't as good as lithium-ion).
 
{{minor|<br />[[Sodium-ion batteries]] are a good potential solution, because they could be built with abundant materials. But this type of battery isn't even available on the market yet. Some companies are investing millions of dollars into ''research & development'', trying to make sodium-ion batteries as energy-dense as lithium-ion. But despite all the hype in the news, there's no guarantee that this will ever happen - and if it does, there's no guarantee that the batteries will be cheap. Meanwhile, sodium-ion batteries could already be a "good enough" solution today, if we just accept the fact that they naturally hold less of a charge than lithium-ion. If battery manufacturers lowered their expectations a bit, they could be making the first sodium-ion batteries in 6 months from now, instead of in 10 years from now!<br /><br />}}
 
Of course there are ''some'' types of EVs that ''have to'' have a long range - for example freight trucks and intercity buses. But maybe if these are the only EVs that use scarce minerals, then there just might be enough minerals to go around.
 
For mid-range EVs, [[LFP batteries]] might be good enough. They're still lithium-based, but at least they're cobalt-free - and these batteries are already available on the market today.


==Generating enough electricity==
==Generating enough electricity==
{{sum|Major problem|bad}}
Whenever the electricity comes from [[fossil fuels]], electric cars are [[electric vehicles/Fossil fuel powered|barely any better than gasoline cars]] (in terms of carbon emissions). This is the case in most parts of the world{{x|If you're lucky to live in an area with abundant [[hydro]] or [[geothermal electricity]], this might not apply to you ''quite as much''. But even in such a region, people would need to charge their cars during ''off-peak'' hours mostly. If the demand for electricity exceeds the capacity of renewables at any moment, then fossil fuel power plants are needed to make up the difference.}}. Globally, the majority of today's electricity '''does''' come from fossil fuels. Other [[energy sources]] have a hard time scaling up.


The vehicles would add an extra load on the power grid. ''How much'' electricity depends on whether the vehicles run on batteries or fuel cells. See [[/energy|this chart]].
For electric vehicles to save the environment, we're going to need a lot more [[solar]], [[wind]], and/or alternative types of [[nuclear]]. Any of these require overcoming some major [[solar/challenge 1|challenges]].
 
<!-- TODO: replace the 'challenges' link with a link to a more general page instead of solar -->
The world ''already'' struggles to generate enough electricity without using [[fossil fuels]]. If ''coal'' or ''natural gas'' power plants are used for charging vehicles, there is [[/fossil fuel powered|almost no net benefit to the environment]].
<!-- TODO: make a map of where in the world are hydro & geothermal power available and not already at maxed-out capacity -->


[[Solar]], [[wind]], and [[nuclear]] all show potential to produce enough [[energy]] - but '''''only''''' if the right innovations happen.
==Availability of charging==
{{sum|Ongoing progress}}
{{empty}}


[[Hydro]] and [[geothermal]] are viable solutions in '''''some''''' parts of the world.
==Rare-earth magnets==
{{sum|Reasonable}}
Efficient electric motors need strong magnets, which can only be made with certain minerals known as ''rare-earth elements'' (REEs) {{x|includes neodymium and 16 other periodic-table elements; in nature, they all tend to occur together in the same parts of the earth}}. Luckily, REEs aren't actually that scarce. Even if all vehicles were electric, we wouldn't even come close to running out of REEs.


==Manufacturing enough energy storage==
{{minor|This is true even if all [[energy]] were to come from [[wind]] turbines, which also contain rare-earth magnets.}}


There are a few ways to store energy in vehicles:
<!-- TODO: Add the calculations & research that led to this statement.-->
* Batteries, such as [[lithium ion]]
* [[Hydrogen gas]] connected to a [[fuel cell vehicles|fuel cell]]


Both are currently ''not viable'' on a large scale, due to needing too many ''rare metals''. See each page for details.


Other battery tech may be promising - especially [[sodium-sulfur batteries]].{{rn}}<!-- TALK: need to decide on a standard for the wikipage title of each battery type -->
==See also==
* [[Hydrogen combustion vehicles]]
* [[Public transit]]
* [[Walkability]]

Latest revision as of 00:17, 16 October 2023

An electric car and charger
16% of the world's GHG emissions are from transportation.

Problem: Most vehicles today run on gasoline, diesel, or other fossil fuels that cause climate change.

Possible solution: Electric vehicles (EVs). But there are some serious challenges that must be dealt with first, before EVs can be mass-produced enough to actually make a difference for the planet.

Status quo

  • Only about 1% of vehicles on the road today are electric.

Types of EVs

By type of energy storage:

  • Battery electric vehicles (most common EVs today)
  • Fuel cell vehicles (very few models on the market today)


By type of vehicle:


Battery minerals

Major problem

The batteries in today's EVs contain large amounts of metals that are too scarce. This makes EVs expensive and unscalable.

More specifically:

  • Almost all of today's EVs use lithium-ion batteries that are made of nickel, cobalt, manganese and of course lithium.
    • Cobalt is the biggest issue: it's scarce, and its production involves child labor.

With either of these technologies, there simply aren't enough minerals available to be mined from the Earth. If we want to make all cars electric, we need to use some other type of energy storage instead. This involves tradeoffs.

Possible solutions

To put it simply:

  • People need to be okay with driving cheap short-range EVs.
  • The battery industry needs to get its s**t together and start making low-cost sodium-ion batteries (even if they aren't as good as lithium-ion).


Sodium-ion batteries are a good potential solution, because they could be built with abundant materials. But this type of battery isn't even available on the market yet. Some companies are investing millions of dollars into research & development, trying to make sodium-ion batteries as energy-dense as lithium-ion. But despite all the hype in the news, there's no guarantee that this will ever happen - and if it does, there's no guarantee that the batteries will be cheap. Meanwhile, sodium-ion batteries could already be a "good enough" solution today, if we just accept the fact that they naturally hold less of a charge than lithium-ion. If battery manufacturers lowered their expectations a bit, they could be making the first sodium-ion batteries in 6 months from now, instead of in 10 years from now!

Of course there are some types of EVs that have to have a long range - for example freight trucks and intercity buses. But maybe if these are the only EVs that use scarce minerals, then there just might be enough minerals to go around.

For mid-range EVs, LFP batteries might be good enough. They're still lithium-based, but at least they're cobalt-free - and these batteries are already available on the market today.

Generating enough electricity

Major problem

Whenever the electricity comes from fossil fuels, electric cars are barely any better than gasoline cars (in terms of carbon emissions). This is the case in most parts of the world(...)( If you're lucky to live in an area with abundant hydro or geothermal electricity, this might not apply to you quite as much. But even in such a region, people would need to charge their cars during off-peak hours mostly. If the demand for electricity exceeds the capacity of renewables at any moment, then fossil fuel power plants are needed to make up the difference. ). Globally, the majority of today's electricity does come from fossil fuels. Other energy sources have a hard time scaling up.

For electric vehicles to save the environment, we're going to need a lot more solar, wind, and/or alternative types of nuclear. Any of these require overcoming some major challenges.

Availability of charging

Ongoing progress

This section has not been filled in yet.

Rare-earth magnets

Reasonable

Efficient electric motors need strong magnets, which can only be made with certain minerals known as rare-earth elements (REEs) (...)( includes neodymium and 16 other periodic-table elements; in nature, they all tend to occur together in the same parts of the earth ). Luckily, REEs aren't actually that scarce. Even if all vehicles were electric, we wouldn't even come close to running out of REEs.

This is true even if all energy were to come from wind turbines, which also contain rare-earth magnets.


See also

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